Archive for August, 2007
Dr. Gregory Clark has a new book "A Farewell to Alms" that offers a unique and very interesting explanation of the underlying causes and consequences of the industrial revolution.
The New York Times has a discussion about the book:
Gregory Clark, an economic historian at the University of California, Davis, believes that the Industrial Revolution — the surge in economic growth that occurred first in England around 1800 — occurred because of a change in the nature of the human population. The change was one in which people gradually developed the strange new behaviors required to make a modern economy work. The middle-class values of nonviolence, literacy, long working hours and a willingness to save emerged only recently in human history, Dr. Clark argues.
Generation after generation, the rich had more surviving children than the poor, his research showed. That meant there must have been constant downward social mobility as the poor failed to reproduce themselves and the progeny of the rich took over their occupations. “The modern population of the English is largely descended from the economic upper classes of the Middle Ages,” he concluded.
As the progeny of the rich pervaded all levels of society, Dr. Clark considered, the behaviors that made for wealth could have spread with them. He has documented that several aspects of what might now be called middle-class values changed significantly from the days of hunter gatherer societies to 1800. Work hours increased, literacy and numeracy rose, and the level of interpersonal violence dropped.
Another significant change in behavior, Dr. Clark argues, was an increase in people’s preference for saving over instant consumption, which he sees reflected in the steady decline in interest rates from 1200 to 1800.
Dr. Clark says the middle-class values needed for productivity could have been transmitted either culturally or genetically. But in some passages, he seems to lean toward evolution as the explanation. “Through the long agrarian passage leading up to the Industrial Revolution, man was becoming biologically more adapted to the modern economic world,” he writes. And, “The triumph of capitalism in the modern world thus may lie as much in our genes as in ideology or rationality.”
Full story here.
What does this say about today’s post-industrial economy?
posted by Kevin Stolarick
Pop star Lily Allen has had her US work visa cancelled after arriving at Los Angeles International Airport. …”Lily was questioned and her work visa was revoked,” Allen’s spokesman
said. “She was detained for five hours but not strip searched.
Understandably she was upset by it.” …In a statement the singer
said: “I am trying everything I can to sort this out. …”It is my intention to play my American dates in September. This depends on the authorities granting me a new work visa.
Lily Allen’s Blog
So I’m back in America, I landed in Seattle this afternoon. It seems
that the American Immigration peoples know things about me that I
don’t. Twice now I have been questioned over things that are a little
dubious.
A few weeks ago I was pulled over at the border driving from Canada in
the US and the lady said “Mam, it has been brought to my attention that
you have been caught in possesion.” “Possesion of what?” I replied. “I
can’t discuss that, mam” she said. Now she declined to comment as to
where she obtained this false and foggy information. To my knowledge, I
have never been arrested or charged in conjunction with any illegal
substance, so I don’t understand where this information was obtained. I
thought it interesting, but didn’t do anything about it.
Then, today I was at passport control, where I was handed a massive red
card and was sent to an interrogation room for questioning before they
would let me in the country. The officer was very friendly this time,
but what he said was equally as strange. A few weeks ago I allegedly
hit a photographer. According to the newspapers, I have been sent a
letter by the police asking me to report to the Police station to face
questions in relation to this incident. I have not received any letter
and I have not had any contact with the police, so it seemed odd to me
that the United States Citizenship and Immigration services should have
access to such information before even I have been notified of these
charges or enquiries.
The Immigration officer said, ” I know why you’e been pulled aside.”
“Really, why?” I replied. “Were you charged for assulting the
photographer? Have you been to court?” “I haven’t even been arrested,
not even questioned! I have never even spoken to a policeman in regards
to this incident.” HHHmmmmm, I doubt that a United States Government
agency would use unreliable sources such as Wikipedia or google news,
quoting tabloid goosip and lies as factual evidence, would they?
Anyway, I look forward to the next couple of weeks here, we’re playing
a few gigs and then I’m getting started on the new album. Can’t wait
for the festival season to get underway, and Glastonbury is gonna be
amazing this year!
I hope everyone’s well, sorry I haven’t been writing much recently, I just haven’t had much to say. Love yall x xx x x xlily
Kevin Stolarick of the Creative Class Group and Lisa Taber of
FortiusOne have paired up to develop a series of ‘heat maps’ that show
the hottest places in the country based on your lifestage and some
preselected criteria. The maps allow you to zoom in on specific parts
of the country or see how your current city compares to others.
Starting a Family Map
Come back Monday to see next week’s map: Like Being a DINK
The New York Times reports on a recent study that found the "wage gender gap" hasn’t just disappeared, it’s switched direction in some big cities.
Young women in New York and several of the nation’s other largest cities who work full time have forged ahead of men in wages, according to an analysis of recent census data. The shift has occurred in New York since 2000 and even earlier in Los Angeles, Dallas and a few other cities.
The analysis was prepared by Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College, who first reported his findings in Gotham Gazette, published online by the Citizens Union Foundation. It shows that women of all educational levels from 21 to 30 living in New York City and working full time made 117 percent of men’s wages, and even more in Dallas, 120 percent. Nationwide, that group of women made much less: 89 percent of the average full-time pay for men.
Full story here
posted by Kevin Stolarick
Many see the United States as the embodiment of entrepreneurial, flexible and innovative capitalism. Carl Schramm and Robert Litan of the Kauffman Foundation argue that the U.S. is an innovative mix of entrepreneurial and “big-firm” capitalism. But according to one recent analysis government plays a massive role in the US economy. The latest issue of Reason (pointer from Arnold Kling) cites a study by economic consultant Gary Shilling which shows that:.
More than half of all Americans–53 percent–now depend on government
for their income. In 1950 the figure was just 28 percent…Shilling
totaled up federal, state, and local government workers, plus
private-sector workers who owe their jobs to government, plus
recipients of Social Security, other transfer payments, and benefits
such as food stamps. He also tacked on dependents…adjusting his
figures to avoid double-counting…
Kling adds a pointer to Mark Trumbull’s piece on Schilling’s analysis in the Christian Science Monitor.
ABC News reports that:
The number of U.S. citizens who moved to Canada last year hit a 30-year high, with a 20 percent increase over the previous year and almost double the number who moved in 2000. In 2006, 10,942 Americans went to Canada, compared with 9,262 in 2005 and 5,828 in 2000, according to a survey by the Association for
Canadian Studies (hat tip: Kevin Stolarick).
Take a look at this graph of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for 20 metros (hat tip: Martin Kenney). Over at MacroMarkets site, there’s interesting maps and graphics where you can look in detail at each of these markets.
UPDATE: While working on the references for Who’s Your City, I came across this very recent and very interesting Shiller paper comparing the current housing cycle to historic turning points in real estate.
What’s interesting here is how the pattern is on the one hand a pretty strong overall trend line, but on closer inspection seems to be made up of four clustered sub-markets. Some markets actually experienced very little appreciation, others more modest, whole some skyrocketed. What do you think the future has in store?