Newhoggers asks an important question:
Can a creative class backed candidate at the national level get beyond
his/her high intensity support and create a majority coalition within
the Democratic Party? Obama is the first Democrat in a competitive
situation to gain a majority of votes, so I think this concern has been
allayed.
Meaning his plurality in South Carolina.
Yes, I agree: He can. Years ago, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira predicted their emerging Democratic majority based on minority plus creative-class like voters in “ideopolises.” The book resonated with me – but I could not see how the numbers would add up. What about older independents and Reagan Democrats? These voters, I believe – and still believe – would be hard to bring into such a coalition. Bill Clinton may say draw the Jesse Jackson comparison. But Obama has shown his ability to draw from a far broader pool of people – pulling in independents and also mobilizing huge turnouts among young, black and educated or creative class voters. I think with him, and possibly only with him, the math works. Thus less an emerging partisan majority and more an emerging Obama (alternative) majority.
But that still does not alleviate my main worry. I can see how Obama wins the Democratic nomination. But it’s harder to see his road to a victory in the general election. I’m not saying he can’t do it. With the Republicans seemingly and weighed down with the war issue and the electoral mood shifting to both the economy and “change” (read: throw the bums out), he stands his best possible chance this year. The hurdle I see lies in the electoral college. He needs to swing the swing states and from what I can tell his voters are mighty concentrated geographically. It’s America’s concentrated and “sorted” political geography that’s the biggest obstacle to an Obama presidency.
January 28th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I’m increasingly impressed with Obama, but I share Richard’s worry about the general election. Most of us political junkies thought that John Kerry’s war hero record was embedded in the public consciousness, but for a few hundred thousand the Right wing slime machine raised doubts with the Swift Boat ads. I personally believe that the reason he lost was not fighting back immediately on them. But the fact remains that after a year of primaries and headlines, plus the general election campaign, Kerry still hadn’t been introduced to the late deciders.
How much harder for a Black man with a foreign, even Arab, sounding name to break through. The “Obama’s a Muslim” rumors we laugh at will reach many voters for the first time and raise doubts next Fall. It will take a Gargantuan effort not just to overcome all of the trash and prejudices about liberal Democrats, and about Blacks, and about Muslims — but to do it in an atmosphere of lies and slander. Check out what was said about John McCain and Max Cleland if you think this will be even remotely a debate on “the issues”. The same thing applies by the way, about Hillary, just different lies and prejudices.
On the other hand, if he does succeed in being elected it would be a probably unprecedented sea change in the country’s consciousness. Not only would it change the World’s opinion of us for the better, but we’d probably deserve it.
Then there’s the unspoken undercurrent of assassination for both him and Hillary. As the Kennedy family lines up behind Obama, it should remind us that leadership is fragile and who’s chosen as VP is vital.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:33 am
I (also afflicted with the political rubber-neck junkie habit, even as I should be preparing for a 4 day jury trial starting in a few hours) have to disagree with you and Michael here Richard. Obama strikes the GOP in their underbelly, the South. Many states in the South, including mine (Virginia), are already on the verge of a tipping point. Obama would mobilize maximum turnout of both black voters and the creative class; as well as regular Democrats. Thus, he would put into contest many assumptive “red” states; and if he were to win even one of them, that might very well be the difference in the electoral college. In any event, it will be fun to watch (and punditize) as we move forward into what will hopefully prove to be a new era.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:37 am
…and I’ll add that if McCain and Obama are the nominees, we’re on the road to a brighter future regardless of where the vote tallies land
January 29th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Fervently hope that you’re right. Just maybe if McCain is the nominee he won’t allow the slander and lies that characterize the Bushies. Although can he contain the “independent” committees?
January 29th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Hmm. Would McCain willingly eschew the use of the tools that so effectively marginalized him in the past? (ie. “McCain’s Black Baby”, etc.)
Note that he has had to change some of his positions considerably to gain tacit approval from the GOP leadership and thus avoid having those tools used against him this time around.