His lead is widening in both the Iowa Electronic Markets and the Gallup Poll.
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Obama has the opportunity to become of the top 5 most highly regarded and respected Presidents in American history. But ONLY IF he moves towards the center and evacuates rapidly from the liberal left and some of his more hazardous positions. Vowing to raise taxes. Vowing to leave Iraq methodically and at an organized pace before assuming office and considering the intelligence. Etc, etc. He will fall flat on his face in the general election if he does not focus on shaping dynamic policy to match his rhetoric.
In fairness, Obama’s website does lay out a lot of specific positions. But he’s still well to the left of the American people. He needs to rethink, in particular, the issues of taxes and fiscal policy and refrain from making bright-line pledges on what he’ll do in Iraq before he’s seen the intelligence reports and met with the generals running the war. He can’t credibly commit to pulling-out on a time-table before having those discussions.
The previous commenter wrote that most Americans are not “left-liberal”. As such, Obama should apparently move to the “center”. What does the data say? To wit:
“The poll was fielded by Knowledge Networks, which surveyed 1,058 people from Oct. 6-15….Sixty-five percent say that the Bush administration is ‘too quick to get military forces involved’ and 67 percent say that it should ‘put more emphasis on diplomatic and economic methods.’ Large majorities favor putting greater emphasis on non-military forms of pursuing security such as working to reduce U.S. dependence on oil (84%), coordinating intelligence and law enforcement efforts with other countries (83%), working through the United Nations to strengthen international anti-terrorism law and enforcement (71%), and building goodwill toward the United States by providing food and medical assistance to people in poor countries (57%)….Far less popular are approaches such as building new nuclear weapons (25%) or helping dissidents try to overthrow the government of Iran (28%)….On average they favor cutting spending on military items by $198 billion, or 36 percent, from 2006 levels, and reducing spending for military operations in Iraq by $18 billion….Americans favor increasing spending on preparation for disasters by an average of $40 billion. They also support more funding for energy conservation and renewables ($39 billion), humanitarian and disaster assistance ($19 billion), initiatives to control the global spread of HIV/AIDS ($25 billion), helping poor countries develop their economies ($17 billion),and programs to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons by helping countries secure nuclear materials ($16 billion).” I also remember reading that a majority of Americans actually think we should give up the UN Security Council veto and just vote with the majority.
2) http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0309-03.htm “Given the chance to look at and make changes to the major areas of Bush’s proposed discretionary budget for fiscal year 2006, which begins on Oct. 1, 2005, around two-thirds redirected money to reduce the budget deficit, said the poll released Monday by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA)….’The American public as a whole takes a fairly coherent position. They favor redirecting a portion of defense spending to deficit reduction and social spending and look for savings by cutting spending on large-scale Cold War style capabilities,” said PIPA director Steven Kull….Republican and Democratic poll participants alike would take the budget axe to spending on defense and on Iraq and Afghanistan, plowing more funds into education, job training, veterans, and reducing U.S. reliance on oil, the poll found….Defense spending received the deepest cut–an average of 31 percent or the equivalent of around $134 billion–with 65 percent of survey participants doing the cutting. The second largest area to be cut was the supplemental spending for U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, with two out of three respondents opting to cut the funding, by an average of $29.6 billion or 35 percent. Some 63 percent of respondents said they favored rolling back tax cuts for people with incomes in excess of $200,000. Opposition to the tax cuts was strongest among the 62 percent of respondents who said the budget deficit was large. The survey found there would be greater support for the tax cuts were they not specifically limited to the wealthy….The largest increases were for social spending….Education was increased $26.8 billion or 39 percent and respondents proposed boosting job training and employment by $19 billion–or 263 percent….Medical research was given an additional injection of $15.5 billion or 53 percent. Veterans’ benefits were raised 40 percent or $12.5 billion and housing was buttressed with a 31 percent budget raise, or $9.3 billion…In most cases, PIPA said, clear majorities of respondents backed those increases: education drew extra support from 57 percent of survey participants; job training, from 67 percent; medical research, from 57 percent, and veterans’ benefits, from 63 percent. Only 43 percent of respondents favored increases for housing.”
So to summarize, huge majorities of Americans say that we should make deep cuts in military spending, roll back tax cuts on the wealthy, and redistribute the tax money for health care, medical research, education, and infrastructure. And stop invading countries.
Excellent research. Most American would probably “support” most of the cited social goods and cooperative line-items in a perfect world and so would any of the potential candidates; but I would be leary of the statistics when making social policy. On the military, all that sounds very naive; the US should do a lot more talking and less fighting BUT it shouldn’t put down the big stick. There are still way too many countries in the world that cannot be trusted and wouldn’t hesitate to stick it to us if they thought they could.
I would like to make more specific comments if I had time. One very relevant one: if we roll-back the tax cuts on those making 200K, we will thrust a dagger into the heart of the creative economy. Of all the alarming economic signs, one seems to have passed by without much notice: restaurant spending has plummeted recently– that threatens the viability of the creative economy as creatives transact a lot business in them and the service class makes a lot of money serving them (and opening new restaurants/concepts). Of all the liberal notions, thinking that “the rich”, that is, the truly rich, can be taxed by policy change is the most naive and ludicrous of all; they will always be one step ahead. That’s just life.
What’s interesting to me is that this means the Iowa Electronic Market appears to have spent the bulk of the last year being exactly wrong in it’s prediction.
What’s interesting to me is that this means the Iowa Electronic Market appears to have spent the bulk of the last year being exactly wrong in its prediction.
February 20th, 2008 at 12:21 am
Obama has the opportunity to become of the top 5 most highly regarded and respected Presidents in American history. But ONLY IF he moves towards the center and evacuates rapidly from the liberal left and some of his more hazardous positions. Vowing to raise taxes. Vowing to leave Iraq methodically and at an organized pace before assuming office and considering the intelligence. Etc, etc. He will fall flat on his face in the general election if he does not focus on shaping dynamic policy to match his rhetoric.
In fairness, Obama’s website does lay out a lot of specific positions. But he’s still well to the left of the American people. He needs to rethink, in particular, the issues of taxes and fiscal policy and refrain from making bright-line pledges on what he’ll do in Iraq before he’s seen the intelligence reports and met with the generals running the war. He can’t credibly commit to pulling-out on a time-table before having those discussions.
February 20th, 2008 at 2:29 am
The previous commenter wrote that most Americans are not “left-liberal”. As such, Obama should apparently move to the “center”. What does the data say? To wit:
1)http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/262.php?nid=&id=&pnt=262&lb=hmpg1
“The poll was fielded by Knowledge Networks, which surveyed 1,058 people from Oct. 6-15….Sixty-five percent say that the Bush administration is ‘too quick to get military forces involved’ and 67 percent say that it should ‘put more emphasis on diplomatic and economic methods.’ Large majorities favor putting greater emphasis on non-military forms of pursuing security such as working to reduce U.S. dependence on oil (84%), coordinating intelligence and law enforcement efforts with other countries (83%), working through the United Nations to strengthen international anti-terrorism law and enforcement (71%), and building goodwill toward the United States by providing food and medical assistance to people in poor countries (57%)….Far less popular are approaches such as building new nuclear weapons (25%) or helping dissidents try to overthrow the government of Iran (28%)….On average they favor cutting spending on military items by $198 billion, or 36 percent, from 2006 levels, and reducing spending for military operations in Iraq by $18 billion….Americans favor increasing spending on preparation for disasters by an average of $40 billion. They also support more funding for energy conservation and renewables ($39 billion), humanitarian and disaster assistance ($19 billion), initiatives to control the global spread of HIV/AIDS ($25 billion), helping poor countries develop their economies ($17 billion),and programs to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons by helping countries secure nuclear materials ($16 billion).” I also remember reading that a majority of Americans actually think we should give up the UN Security Council veto and just vote with the majority.
2)
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0309-03.htm
“Given the chance to look at and make changes to the major areas of Bush’s proposed discretionary budget for fiscal year 2006, which begins on Oct. 1, 2005, around two-thirds redirected money to reduce the budget deficit, said the poll released Monday by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA)….’The American public as a whole takes a fairly coherent position. They favor redirecting a portion of defense spending to deficit reduction and social spending and look for savings by cutting spending on large-scale Cold War style capabilities,” said PIPA director Steven Kull….Republican and Democratic poll participants alike would take the budget axe to spending on defense and on Iraq and Afghanistan, plowing more funds into education, job training, veterans, and reducing U.S. reliance on oil, the poll found….Defense spending received the deepest cut–an average of 31 percent or the equivalent of around $134 billion–with 65 percent of survey participants doing the cutting. The second largest area to be cut was the supplemental spending for U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, with two out of three respondents opting to cut the funding, by an average of $29.6 billion or 35 percent. Some 63 percent of respondents said they favored rolling back tax cuts for people with incomes in excess of $200,000. Opposition to the tax cuts was strongest among the 62 percent of respondents who said the budget deficit was large. The survey found there would be greater support for the tax cuts were they not specifically limited to the wealthy….The largest increases were for social spending….Education was increased $26.8 billion or 39 percent and respondents proposed boosting job training and employment by $19 billion–or 263 percent….Medical research was given an additional injection of $15.5 billion or 53 percent. Veterans’ benefits were raised 40 percent or $12.5 billion and housing was buttressed with a 31 percent budget raise, or $9.3 billion…In most cases, PIPA said, clear majorities of respondents backed those increases: education drew extra support from 57 percent of survey participants; job training, from 67 percent; medical research, from 57 percent, and veterans’ benefits, from 63 percent. Only 43 percent of respondents favored increases for housing.”
So to summarize, huge majorities of Americans say that we should make deep cuts in military spending, roll back tax cuts on the wealthy, and redistribute the tax money for health care, medical research, education, and infrastructure. And stop invading countries.
February 20th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Excellent research. Most American would probably “support” most of the cited social goods and cooperative line-items in a perfect world and so would any of the potential candidates; but I would be leary of the statistics when making social policy. On the military, all that sounds very naive; the US should do a lot more talking and less fighting BUT it shouldn’t put down the big stick. There are still way too many countries in the world that cannot be trusted and wouldn’t hesitate to stick it to us if they thought they could.
I would like to make more specific comments if I had time. One very relevant one: if we roll-back the tax cuts on those making 200K, we will thrust a dagger into the heart of the creative economy. Of all the alarming economic signs, one seems to have passed by without much notice: restaurant spending has plummeted recently– that threatens the viability of the creative economy as creatives transact a lot business in them and the service class makes a lot of money serving them (and opening new restaurants/concepts). Of all the liberal notions, thinking that “the rich”, that is, the truly rich, can be taxed by policy change is the most naive and ludicrous of all; they will always be one step ahead. That’s just life.
February 20th, 2008 at 11:13 am
What’s interesting to me is that this means the Iowa Electronic Market appears to have spent the bulk of the last year being exactly wrong in it’s prediction.
February 20th, 2008 at 11:14 am
What’s interesting to me is that this means the Iowa Electronic Market appears to have spent the bulk of the last year being exactly wrong in its prediction.