Michael Lind says the Republicans have a long-run structural advantage in presidential politics.
According to the conventional wisdom, the
odds are in favour of the Democrats winning back the White House this
year. With the country mired in an unpopular war in Iraq and perhaps in
a prolonged recession, voters will treat the November election as a
referendum on George W. Bush and punish his party … That is one
possibility. But it is worth considering the possibility that US
politics has not changed much at all. The era of Republican
presidential hegemony that began with Richard Nixon may not be over …The enduring Republican presidential majority originated in 1968, when the
populist Democrat George Wallace won 13.5 per cent of the popular vote
as an independent who drew his strength from the white working-class
backlash against the civil rights revolution and cultural liberalism. By
welding white, working-class Wallace Democrats (later called Reagan
Democrats) to the Republican party, Nixon created the GOP lock on the
White House that has been broken only by freakish circumstances in
1976, 1992 and 1996. Deprived of the white working-class voters that
were the mainstay of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal coalition, the
Democrats by 1980 became what they remain today – a party of socially
liberal white professionals allied with blacks and Latinos on the basis
of targeted racial patronage policies, such as affirmative action, and
race-based congressional districts for blacks and amnesty for illegal
immigrants from Latin America.To win back the White House this year,
the Democratic presidential nominee, whether Barack Obama or Hillary
Clinton, must win the votes of millions of Webb Democrats – the heirs
to the Wallace and Reagan Democrats. If many voters return to the
practice of dividing their votes for president and Congress between the
two parties, then the future may hold Republican presidents facing
Democratic Congresses, as in most of the period from 1968 to 1994 …As long as the Republicans appeal more
than Democrats to the white working-class populists whom George Wallace
led out of the Democratic Party in 1968, then even in disarray they may
be able to shut Democrats out of the White House for the eighth time
out of 11 elections.
I wouldn’t dispute this historically. And certainly, this election turns on class – as well as race and gender. But I do think the nature of class politics, if you will, is shifting. Since 1980, the creative class has grown enormously, while the working class has shrunk. Back to the election: my hunch is that the working class vote will prove less critical this time around simply because it is smaller. The key factor is more likely the competition for creative class independents: Can McCain siphon off enough of them to vault him into the White House.
Here’s the question: Should Obama take Webb has his veep in order to broaden his appeal to working class voters, or someone like Republican Chuck Hagel to bridge the partisan divide. And what about McCain. Feel free to suggest other people and strategies.
February 20th, 2008 at 9:56 am
The creative class independents will clearly decide this election. Webb is an anomaly. Being from Virginia, I can tell you that Webb won because Allen lost the creative class vote completely when he made some racially intolerant remarks and was thereafter “outed”, at least by perception, as a racially intolerant ‘good ol boy’ who lacked authenticity.
Obama needs to select someone who will help him cut deeply into the socially moderate-fiscally conservative/moderate GOP vote. Someone from the business world, like Mark Warner, a very popular former Virginia governor from the moderate/practical wing of the Democratic party, who made a fortune in telecommunications as an entrepreneur, would appeal to the creative class moderates and independents and probably deliver Virginia (and, with it, the presidency) to Obama. Many in the creative class earn high incomes as consultants/professionals or own and run start-up companies and small businesses. They need to be assured that Obama will not abandon their real needs and desires for the hopes and dreams of the liberal left; or penalize their successes with tax hikes that catch them in “the rich” net. Otherwise, they will not vote for him.
Obama also needs to appease the national-security GOP moderates by promising to heed the advice of military leaders but demand results-oriented plans from them that get the US out of Iraq as soon as possible; as opposed to pledging blindly to withdraw troops immediately.
Remarkably, both McCain and Obama appeal heavily to the creative class. Both do best in urban areas too. Whichever of these candidates appeals to the creative class the most, on balance, will win the election.
February 20th, 2008 at 11:20 am
My Obama VP picks:
Richardson: Latino, international, executive, and cabinet experience; balances McCain mountain state advantage
Wesley Clark: military balances McCain advantage
McCaskill: key state, woman (two Senators a possible drawback)
Edwards (don’t laugh, I think it’s totally possible): popular with Dem base, Southern, firms up working class vote
Kaine: Popular governor, early Obama supporter, potential swing state.
Slim chance for Webb: too crusty, too new, Obama needs an experienced pol.
Warner: good choice but Dems really want him to win the VA Senate seat.
Hagel seems remote at best.
February 20th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
This election will be a test of whether America’s racism has diminished, particularly among independents and swing voters. The liberal crowds flocking to Obama have let it go. The hard Right Republicans don’t matter because they’re not going to vote for any Democrat.
So, has the White working class outgrown it’s racist fears? Have Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Colan Powell, Condolesa Rice etc. made Blacks less frightening? And does the growing Creative Class actually have the advertised openness to look beyond stereotypes?
If America can elect Obama it will change the world’s opinion of us for the better — and what’s more, we’ll deserve it. But make no mistake, it will be a massive uphill battle against the Right’s slander machine. A Black liberal with a Muslim sounding name will be hit with filth that make the 2000 attacks on McCain or the last 12 years of mud thrown at the Clintons look mild. The education campaign necessary to get the attention of the folks who don’t go to caucuses or watch CNN election nights will be unprecedented. Probably one reason McCain’s pushing for spending limits, in addition to their being a good idea in theory.
Question: Does Obama having an African father somehow help exempt him from the stereotypes of African-Americans? I have no idea, just a thought.
February 20th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I just heard that the Teamsters are the 3rd union to endorse Obama. They chose him over Hillary after polling the membership. If Teamsters can support Obama, what does that say about the Reagan Democrats?
February 20th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Mr. Wells, that’s an interesting question. What stereotypes are you thinking of?
February 21st, 2008 at 1:08 am
Cheryl,
I really hadn’t thought it out, it just occured to me. Would being “foreign” somehow make Obama less identified with all of the racist images our society imposes on Black people, you name it — lazy, shiftless, criminal, dumb, and somehow really dangerous and scary. The dozens of others that have grown in White consciousness from 400 years of guilt and fear.
I guess what I was wondering is if he were the identical person, but his history had been Watts rather than Hawaii and Indonesia, if he would be getting the same reception. And honestly as I said, I have no idea.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Michael,
Colin Powell, another highly respected African American in both the Black and White community, grew up in Harlem and the Bronx. Perhaps it’s not place of birth, but degree of assimilation of American values that impacts acceptance.