Talk about post-convention bounce. A new Gallup poll has McCain now up by 10 points over Obama, 54-44. Lots of fluctuation and other polls have it much closer. Alan Brinkley opines in the Wall Street Journal that in a post-partisan world, voters are driven by wedge issues and the “attractiveness” of candidates. An ABC poll says white women are flocking to McCain-Palin who lead in this demo 53-41. Quite a turnaround from Obama, up 50-42 before the conventions (data via pollster.com).
But such macro perspectives miss the underlying reality of American politics. It’s all about geography.
Obama has the creative class states wrapped up, no doubt; but these are highly concentrated.
The political geography of the election turns on a handful or so of swing states: Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.
From where I sit, this poses a real challenge for Obama. Seems to me, the whole kit and caboodle turns on whether Obama can mobilize enough young people and black voters to turn those states.
Looking at this emerging political geography, which way do you think the election will swing?
September 8th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
North Carolina is not a swing state. Virginia and Colorado could be classified as creative class states. Florida is a demographic melting pot.
John McCain sounded much more like the creative class candidate in his speech than Obama did in his. To wit, honorable mentions: the global economy and need for re-training across lost blue-collar industries; the preaching of social entrepreneurship and a call for good acts; the post-partisan appeals; the first politician to refer to the need to replace the old 1950’s paradigm with something wholly new and different; and the characterization of education as the civil rights issue of the 21st century. Line by line, McCain sounded a message that resonates with the creative class much more than did Obama who littered his speech with old-school liberal platitudes. Also, McCain’s campaign has been much more creative than Obama’s.
Obama could have picked Tim Kaine as his running mate and wrapped this up several weeks ago. What kind of change does he offer when he selects a traditional old-school Washington insider liberal as his running mate. Change that ain’t change. Right there, he wounded himself by putting his authenticity squarely in question and opened the door for Sarah Palin to deliver the fatal blow. And make no mistake, that speech she gave was performance art of the highest kind.
Obama and McCain would both make excellent presidents. But it’s the old chap McCain who tapped into the cultural zeitgeist in a bold and creative way, running a non-traditional campaign and choosing an unconventional running mate.
But, alas, everyone can celebrate the political demise of the following in 2008:
–the right wing right’s monopoly on religion
–the glass ceiling for women
–the glass ceiling on ethnicity
–partisan politics
–right-wing talk radio
–left-wing media liberal intolerance
–etc., etc. …I’ll end this and save space for others
Final bottom line: we’ve officially inaugurated the post-partisan era!!
September 8th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Hayden Fisher misses the fact that it is impossible to separate McCain’s speech from the broader context of the Republican conference that he oversaw. This conference included Giuliani mocking “cosmopolitanism”, Giuliani and Palin mocking “community organizing”, and Palin participating in the crudest and most cynical form of rural cultural populism. McCain’s tepid speech looked ludicrous juxtaposed to those previous speeches. McCain’s speech was, by the way, riven with the most tired and hackneyed conservative bromides. Also, how does the creative class look upon Palin’s support of creationism, her denial of evolution, and her other rightist religious views? Likely very poorly. If Obama loses, it will have nothing to do with, as Fisher suggests, his failure to adopt right-wing ‘libertarian’ economic nostrums. If anything, he is already too captive to the corporate influences that are the dominant and prevailing forces in our society and by extension, our politics. Instead, if Obama loses, I think the blame has to lie with us, and with our collective failure to form and support broad-based progressive social movements that exist outside the electoral system, but that can, when needed, be turned and enacted to guide the candidacies of politicians (like Obama) beyond the constricting boundaries of our currently debased and hollowed-out system. Just think: when you have two candidates who both support “tax cuts” and “energy independence”, but one is a war hero making traditionalist cultural appeals, it seems to me the war hero is always going to win. We need to construct movements that will pull/push/support candidates outside of the narrow corporate spectrum that now prevails.
September 9th, 2008 at 7:14 am
How is the right wing not still in charge of religious debate in this country? Sarah Palin? Hello?
Seriously, if after 6.1% unemployment (and that’s the official figure), Katrina, Iraq, Habeus Corpus, the Patriot Act, Walter Reed, tax cuts for the wealthy, anti-gay marriage initiatives, free speech zones, the mortgage crisis, a monster deficit, and threats to privitize social security and medicare, if this country feels it needs to continue the Bush Doctrine by electing McCain, then there really is no hope and the dark alternative future outlined in “Flight of the Creative Class” will come to pass as more and more creatives, intellectuals, and the like will simply not come to America, or if pressured enough economically or socially, will just up and leave.
September 9th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
It is really remarkable that picking a trophy VP, gun owner, anti abortion right to life, and union representative governor has energized the republican base and put McCain ten points ahead of Obama. What a stroke of genius! Women are flocking to McCain. Again southern Ohio may determine the outcome of the election. That’s geography for you.
September 9th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
It can swing either way but it will not be determined by the creative class as you point out.
September 10th, 2008 at 9:30 am
To Brian, let’s put Palin’s personal views aside and look into what she’s actually done in Alaska, including appointing Democrats and Independents to her cabinet and sending corrupt Republicans to jail– she’s plenty moderate. She’s not, as you note however, liberal. We don’t need liberals or conservatives in office. We need moderate problem solvers who will drive common-sense policy initiatives, derail corruption and facilitate compromise where possible. I don’t care what Palin teaches her kids about evolution (they’ll find the real story online anyway) just like I don’t care what homosexuals do in their bedrooms. Just fix problems and promote honest government!
The intolerant condemnation era is over and, with it, the end of condemnation-ists from both the left and the right.