From the Financial Times:
The map accompanying this article picks out the five most finely balanced swing states on the assumption that neither candidate will gain a decisive early lead. These are Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. In none of these states does either candidate have a lead of greater than 1 per cent, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average. Each presents distinct challenges for the campaigns. The map also assumes that Mr Obama begins with a floor of 260 electoral college votes and Mr McCain with a floor of 227. The winner needs 270 electoral votes.
September 13th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
The volatility is all on Obama’s side. CNN’s poll of polls shows McCain with the same floor of 227, but Obama with a floor of only 217. However the Iowa electronic markets still predict an Obama win.
September 13th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Dr. Florida,
This essay by John Duffy really got my attention:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.wcoessay0912/BNStory/specialComment/home/?pageRequested=all
Questions of culture and identity have been the principal means by which U.S. politicians are driving wedges between urban and rural voters. In Canada, the consensus-oriented political culture and the higher degree of urbanization has kept the hard wedges from being hammered in. The rise of environmental politics on the electoral main stage has created a further opportunity for the urban-rural split. No one, least of all John McCain or Stephen Harper, wishes to impede the immense human progress that has come with North America’s relentless urbanization. And neither Barack Obama nor Stéphane Dion wishes to harm rural dwellers. As environmental problems get worse, however, politicians will be increasingly forced into confrontations between the urban and rural coalitions.
September 14th, 2008 at 12:29 am
Obama should have picked Kaine as his running mate!! Should be an exciting finish!
September 14th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Obama lost the election when he didn’t choose Hillary as his running mate. Look at the states she won (in the primaries) and the ones he won. It should come as no surprise in November, that BHO just doesn’t connect with the voters he’ll need to win it all.
September 15th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Hillary probably would have assured an Obama victory but would have led to a divided White House. Obama could have picked Kaine, a Washington outsider with executive experience governing the state ranked #1 for business by Forbes 3 years in a row; recognized as being the best governed for several years in a row; and most recently being named the state best for a child to be publicly educated (or something like that). Kaine would have added a moderate to the ticket consistent with Obama’s message of change with a track record of results behind him– not just rhetoric.
Biden doesn’t deserve the inescapable legacy that will follow him after the first election decided by the choice of running mate. But should we be surprised?? We in the X and Y generations have been brought up to value collaboration, work in teams, and respect diversity. To the much maligned Boomers’ credit, they taught us these values. Whether that diversity be in the form of someone from a different ethnicity, gender, disability, religious persuasion or political view, we’ve been taught to respect them all and work together to achieved shared goals; we’ve been taught to respect and understand, not judge and castigate. So should we surprised, then, that authenticity and post-partisanship have become the hallmarks of this generation; or that they’ve begun to permeate our culture as a whole as more gen Xrs and Yrs have matriculated into adulthood. Even those of us who didn’t go on to college and continued such training and become exposed to other points of view and people have nevertheless been raised in the same environment. Look at the military: it’s not filled with rank and file lifers from military families or draftees anymore. The US military is comprised mostly of men and women who volunteered to become difference makers and capitalize on opportunities to create a new life. The profiles of those who enter the Peace Corp and the US military have become remarkably similar and the missions have changed as well.
In any event, culture change is driving the ups-and-downs of this political race. Partisan politics is dead. Things will never be the same again. Welcome to the era of pragmatism where problem-solving is valued more highly than brute and blind allegiance to theories, causes and the us-against-them mindset of prior eras.
September 15th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
My guess is that the Palin mania will blow over in the next couple of weeks, the media’s short attention span will have moved on. Hopefully then the campaign will be about America’s future rather than personal attacks and sideshows. But the right-wing attack machine will be working to keep the focus on trivia and they’ve got lots of money and smarts, so we’ll see.
I think the lamenting about Hillary is overblown. If she had been the nominee, either president or vice, what we’d be seeing is rehashing of all the old anti-Clinton attacks and baggage. And the media and nervous Democrats would be complaining that they hadn’t picked someone fresh.
The polls are close and would be with any two candidates. We’ve had two cliffhanger elections and even with the disaster of the Bush presidency there is still a wide division in the country. I think the wonder is that a dark skinned man with a funny foreign name is competitive. If the US can elect him it will be a major breakthrough for the country, but I’m not sure enough to make any predictions.