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Richard Florida
by Richard Florida
Tue Sep 16th 2008 at 9:01am UTC

Electoral Map

Via The Talent Show.

Swing states in yellow – Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Virgina, and Colorado among others. Sure, Obama has a structural lead going into it, but whoever swings the swings will win.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 16th, 2008 at 9:01 am and is filed under Live. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

2 Responses to “Electoral Map”

  1. Michael Wells Says:
    September 16th, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    There are several maps showing different electoral splits. Some show Obama leading, others McCain.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/

    CNN also has this one, somewhat different from the its polling map.
    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

    Then there’s the always interesting Iowa electronic markets, showing a slight Obama lead.
    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES08_VS.cfm

    I think it will come down to a few questions. The election is about Obama and change. McCain isn’t a proactive choice, but a fallback if Obama can’t make the sale. Palin is a wild card, if people look at McCain’s age and medical history will they feel comfortable with her as the backup? Biden is obviously qualified, at least on experience and knowledge so he’s a reassurance if something happened to Obama. The questions are:
    •Can McCain & the Republicans raise enough doubts about Obama to convince voters he’s not Commander in Chief material?
    •Can Obama & the Democrats make the case for Obama’s being ready, and make voters feel safe with change, or even enthusiastic?
    •What role will race play with undecided white voters decisions?

    The campaign itself will determine a lot of this, despite all the lamenting about negative ads. It is in effect one long job interview. I think one reason Kerry lost was voters thought “If he can’t stand up to the swift boat lies and Karl Rowe, how will he stand up to Putin?”

  2. Charles Rostkowski Says:
    September 17th, 2008 at 9:13 am

    Before your readers get too excited, they might want to take a look at Michael Barone’s map of state electorals. All the pink states are now solidly red. MT, ND and FL are polling +5 or more for McCain. Va, tied; OH and NV, slight McCain lead; and MI and CO, slight Obama lead. All five are competitive. A few blue states like MN, PA,WI and WA are also competitve.

    Of course all this could change after the debates, but the current situation is nowhere near as optimistic and the above map suggests.