However, as Gordon Brown was previously Chancellor of the Exchequer (as in the finance minister), given the current economic troubles, he is now enjoying a fillip in the polls and is gaining on the Tories, who are seen as closely allied with the city bankers and traders who are seen as the causes of the stock market collapse and credit crunch etc.

Labour party membership, after years of decline from left wingers who have been disgusted with Iraq, support for nuclear weapons and power, dismal progress on tackling climate change, numerous scandals involving donations to the party etc etc, is now on the up again.

The reason? Possibly because left wingers now see that as the Tories are riding high in the polls, and that a general election is approaching, people are scared that the Tories will get back into office. Even a right-leaning Labour party is preferential to a Tory government that will stand for protection of privilege.

In 2004, the Tories were decimated, and now they’ve come back in the face of Labour complacency by adopting “compassionate” policies about the environment and social justice. In 2008 Labour is decimated, and there are rumblings that they’re coming back by adopting some of the left-wing values that they abandoned under Blair. If you look underneath that, you’ll notice that there’s possibly evidence that the country as a whole is becoming more concerned with social justice – the villains of the stock collapse are the mega rich, the bankers, the bonus culture, the culture of excess. In its place is a new fashion for frugality, for attempts of self-sufficiency, for slower living, for worrying less about the rat race.

Maybe the same is happening in the states?

John, I have personally started-up 3 for profit businesses during the last 2 years and a not-for-profit performing arts booster organization; and am deeply involved in the non-profit community at large. I share many of your views. I have reservations about Obama’s economic policies and the proposition of too many liberals in office but it’s time to give Obama’s change a try. The real test will come after the election. Many independents and socially liberal Republicans are going to give Obama and the Dems a chance and they will show us if they’re ready to lead; and whether he truly does represent a new political movement or just more of the same liberal polices masquerading behind a fresh new face.

If Obama governs from the center, like Clinton did but without the scandals, he’ll have enough of the support of the independents and socially liberal Republicans to withstand the conservative counter-punch. If not, we’ll be back to where we came from or, more likely, a new place altogether.

Michael, we’ll turn you into an optimist eventually…

It is surreal that many friends argue, as you do, not to worry about Obama because he doesn’t really mean what he says.

We ought to care about those left behind. It’s called philanthropy, which nurtures human compassion and relationships. Philanthropy does more for the giver than the recipient.

If we end up with Obama, Pelosi, Reid and a filibuster proof Senate, they will decimate the creative class’ incentives to do what only they can to do to pull us back from the abyss. We ignore that at our peril. Compelling people like Joe the Plumber to share their wealth under penalties of imprisonment is toxic and ultimately damages both the giver and the receiver.

One of Obama’s lines from the summer about overcoming racial conflict was something like “People want to do the right thing, but they want it to be easy. We can do it, but it’s not going to be pretty and it’s not going to be easy.” I believe the same thing applies to our political divisions. The work doesn’t end with the election, it’s just the beginning. Hopefully the creative class will be part of it. A large part will be realizing Richard’s idea about making all work creative and breaking down the class barriers.

I sometimes think Hayden is a little Polyannish about how America can do anything, but I do believe we can get through this. Last Spring I thought it was almost unthinkable that we would be about to elect a dark skinned man with a foreign name, and yet it seems to be coming. And regardless of the eventual margins, if North Carolina and North Dakota are swing states this is reaching beyond Latte-land.

The Bush administration has been a disaster and has left the country with a lot to clean up, but that may also be an opportunity to try new ways. But I do agree with Richard, and Obama, it’s not going to be pretty.

You may be right, at least for today.

A very fascinating column! Two quick things tho. I think a few times you’ve mentioned Andrew Gelman, from Columbia. He finds that in fact, in “red” states rich people are much more likely to vote for the GOP but working class people are more likely to vote Democrat. How does this fit in with your class conflict hypothesis?

It also seems as though the Democrats are more or less guaranteed to get a supermajority of both the African American and Hispanic American working class vote. So, that leaves only a question with the white working class. Are you essentially making a comment about the white working class (a dwindling demographic segment BTW) and their right-wing populist proclivities?