In 2010 exactly – according to a Russian professor and former high ranking KGB intelligence expert who forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union – in 1976. Here’s a map and summary from the Wall Street Journal.
[M]ass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces … He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
December 31st, 2008 at 12:30 pm
How on earth would Mexico tske over the South, they could never afford it. This Russian should read “Ecotopia”, by Callenbach, or “The Nine Nations of North America”, by Joel Garreau for some better ideas. However, this would make an excellent starting point for an action adventure movie. Of course in the final 20% of the movie our hero would save the USA (and the world !).
December 31st, 2008 at 12:38 pm
It may or may not be true. I suppose Prof Panarin may be looking how the breakup of China back in the 19th to early 20th century; and the break up of Russia in the late 20th century. The US may disintegrate if the governance under the new Obama administration fails in all the sectors of the economy together with a drastic increase in social instability that forces Americans to move out or to suggest a break up into different independent states. If this were the case, then Panarin’s differentiation of the country is pretty much correct.
It really depends on what and how Obama is going to tackle the current turmoil and get the people together. The massive break up will only occur when there is a severe unrest among the people on economic and political issues. For this to happen in 2010, you need a heck lot of chaos suddenly to get there.
Hope this doesn’t happen. Because if it does, the world would be in chaos too…
December 31st, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Three developments that are really likely are that California could become a Spanish-language, semi-autonomous region like Quebec is in Canada. Also, B.C.,and the Northern part of Washington State could begin to try to make the idea of Cascadia a reality. Hawaii could become independent.
December 31st, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Just to correct, the Russian professor did not predict the demise of the Soviet Union in 1976. Rather it was a Frenchman who the Russian compares himself to. To wit,
“The professor says he’s convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union — 15 years beforehand.”
December 31st, 2008 at 4:14 pm
…looks like someone has been drinking too much vodka
December 31st, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Russian propaganda? Wild card ? or wishful thinking ?
This message may be intended as much for domestic consumption as it is for foreign dissemination. Nothing like a little propaganda to distract the Russian masses and convince them that while motherland Russia is falling to bits, your old cold war rival USA is that much more worse off.
Has Russia launched a new Information, propaganda war against the USA and the west?
In a story on March 30, 2008, titled:Russian expert urges more funds to wage “information war” on Britain and others;
” Russia should earmark more funds for waging information war, an expert in the field, Prof Igor Panarin of the Diplomatic Academy of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation believes.”
Speaking on the “25th Hour” TV program on Moscow’s government controlled Centre TV on 5 December, Panarin, who was interviewed on President Dmitriy Medvedev’s visit to India, said:
“Within the next two to three years, not only will the USA cease to be one of the main centres of power, but I think that it will cease to exist as one state altogether. In this regard, the emergence of new centres of power – China, of course, Europe and the Russian-Indian alliance – will, in this case, be curbing undesirable trends, – the strengthening of China – while stimulating Russia’s very powerful economic and technological surge.” –Source: Centre TV, Moscow, in Russian 2055 5 Dec 08
Back in November, I cited a 25 year projection/ scenario that posits the breakup of the Russian Federation by Nina Khrushcheva, who now teaches in the USA. See “In 25 years, Ukraine dominates over Russia’s Rotting Empire according to Nina L. Khrushcheva, great grand-daughter of Nikita Khrushchev”
So, imagine a world without the two super powers–The USA and Russia. HHmmmm!@?&?? Would we all be better off or not?
Sounds like a Hollywood movie in the making !!!
see
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy
Toronto
January 1st, 2009 at 8:41 am
Saw the headline and brief part of the article when it was delivered, but didn’t read it. This is someone selling a fantastic story and finally finding to an audience… There are groups in russia (at high levels and among the masses) who like this storyline and will gladly buy it up. The audience will grow if oil stays near $40-50 for too long and global growth slows for more than a year or so.
January 1st, 2009 at 12:10 pm
This prediction would have been more convincing without the map (which is simply ludicrous). With due respect to our Canadian neighbors, they have the 55th largest army in the world (slightly more than the New York City police department). They are hardy capable of “grabbing” a group of northern states.
A more likely scenario for civil war would be total economic collapse giving rise to a fascist dictator in some part of the country.
January 1st, 2009 at 8:58 pm
And with due respect to our mid-Western neighbours, who says Canada would want to “grab” those states? Invasion and occupation isn’t our style.
Then again, today’s Detroit/Chicago hockey game at Wrigley Field started with both the Canadian and American anthems, so maybe it’s already started…
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:30 am
It’s much more likely that some states would happily, and voluntarily choose alliances with Canada, rather than Canada “grabbing” them. Places like Vermont, and New Hampshire have more in common with Ontario than they do with Texas.
January 2nd, 2009 at 5:49 am
It’s interesting that some parts of the world still believe in national sovereignty, and then extend that paradigm to places where it is a bogus idea. Some sections of the UK population already live a kind of half-life where contact with others is minimal, there’s no need to speak English and lifestyle is essentially similar to their home nation through access to culture via cable tv and the internet, proliferation of shops importing goods from the home nation etc.
In other words cultural influence may give the impression that customs and lifestyle etc is transportable. So yes, part of Texas and California could be increasingly “hispanic” as more and more political representatives are elected that look to closer ties with South America etc – but the concept of foreign powers “invading” the US is, as many posters have pointed out, farcical, Medvedev/Putin propaganda.
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 pm
This guy is either projecting or needs a psych evaluation.
Or both.
January 4th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
While the basic notion is interesting, it is clear that the actual tale is nonsense. Th breaks show little understanding of American economics and social life.
The US is already broken into 50 states which each have local government.
I would also like to note that the “progressive” agenda as advocated by the elite within the democratic party of trying to make all issues federal challenges Florida’s basis thesis. Any comments?
January 5th, 2009 at 3:07 am
I don’t see Sara Palin or any other Alaskan joining Alaska to Russia. The model further breaks down when one wonders why the EU would want Kentucky and Tennessee and vice versa.
Florida and Texas are also not likely to join in anything, much less with Mexico. Cubans in Florida are the most anti-Mexicans in the whole US.
This whole notion is silly.
April 20th, 2010 at 2:18 am
This is the biggest bunch of baloney I have ever seen on the internet and I’ve seen a lot! Even if the U.S. did ever break into these types of pieces there is no way on God’s green Earth these parts would be controlled by China, Canada, Mexico and Europe. Does that professor from Russia actually gets PAID to create this crap?
If the U.S. had another civil war the resulting pieces would be controlled by themselves. If anyone doubts that they probably took that Russian guy’s class.
And it is a LONG shot that something like that will happen. It is April 2010 now. Call me crazy but I don’t see anyone preparing to kick butt in my neighborhood.
April 20th, 2010 at 2:20 am
One more thing: Doesn’t anyone else out there think that this type of talk is anyway related to blatant RACISM?
January 23rd, 2011 at 2:27 pm
It seems to me that the break-up of America mentioned is only wishful Russian speculation.There is,however,some element of truth in this and may be possible. Lets consider the facts:
The population of the United States is no longer homogeneous,as it has and is diluted by non-white immigration(both legal and illegal).
This has been done buy the auspices of leftist elites and government.
The government no longer represent the majority,but represents minorities and the super wealthy,thus corruption of the government is common.
The United States is a nation,but resembling a multi-ethnic empire.
Such empires must hold their cohesion with force, for example; the
Praetorian Guard of the Roman Empire,the KGB of the former U.S.S.R.
The U.D.B.A. of former Yugoslavia,etc. Thus in America,government
agencies and security organizations will quell dissent to the present regime.
With present economy and falling value of the Dollar,life will become unattainable.The average person will abandon mainstream parties and embrace parties on racial,ethnic,religious lines.
Portions of the country that include large numbers of racial or ethnic groups will either decide to join their compatriots or form their own nations.
This could very well be catalyst for the break-up of America.If civil war is a result,then it will not be like the first Civil War,
but more like the way of former Yugoslavia.
God, I hope I`m wrong!