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	<title>Comments on: Paul Samuelson on the Crisis, George Bush, and More</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/</link>
	<description>The source on how we live, work and play</description>
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		<title>By: Buzzcut</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9706</link>
		<dc:creator>Buzzcut</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2009 19:04:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9706</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;The problem in Buzzcuts analysis is the top category ends at $100k. Therefore, the hedge fund manager with a trophy husband (or wife) and the nurse married to a fireman fall in the same top income category. Up to incomes of $250,000 years of education, # employed, full or part-time employment (or retired) are strongly correlated; although I should point out that correlation does not prove causation.&lt;/i&gt;

Fred, I totally agree.  But consider that less than 2% of households are much above $150k.  Does it really make that much difference in the analysis to lump them all together?

My focus in the analysis was the bottom... septile?  Those households under $15k.  What do they need to do to not be poor?  Answers: work more, get a HIGH SCHOOL education, get married, get a roomate, whatever.  More hours, more education, more income earners.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>The problem in Buzzcuts analysis is the top category ends at $100k. Therefore, the hedge fund manager with a trophy husband (or wife) and the nurse married to a fireman fall in the same top income category. Up to incomes of $250,000 years of education, # employed, full or part-time employment (or retired) are strongly correlated; although I should point out that correlation does not prove causation.</i></p>
<p>Fred, I totally agree.  But consider that less than 2% of households are much above $150k.  Does it really make that much difference in the analysis to lump them all together?</p>
<p>My focus in the analysis was the bottom&#8230; septile?  Those households under $15k.  What do they need to do to not be poor?  Answers: work more, get a HIGH SCHOOL education, get married, get a roomate, whatever.  More hours, more education, more income earners.</p>
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		<title>By: Brock</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9704</link>
		<dc:creator>Brock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:32:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9704</guid>
		<description>This is all a very interesting and lively debate - but I am not finding the source material, the interview with Samuelson, all that interesting - whether he is right or wrong.

The one vital trope &quot;the new fiendish Frankenstein monsters of financial engineering&quot; isn&#039;t very good.

cliche. move along - nothing to see here - we ALL know why there was a crisis - go read something about how to get out of the crisis - for realz.

Here&#039;s something - The Smart Growth Manifesto:
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/haque/2009/01/davos_discussing_a_depression.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is all a very interesting and lively debate &#8211; but I am not finding the source material, the interview with Samuelson, all that interesting &#8211; whether he is right or wrong.</p>
<p>The one vital trope &#8220;the new fiendish Frankenstein monsters of financial engineering&#8221; isn&#8217;t very good.</p>
<p>cliche. move along &#8211; nothing to see here &#8211; we ALL know why there was a crisis &#8211; go read something about how to get out of the crisis &#8211; for realz.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s something &#8211; The Smart Growth Manifesto:<br />
<a href="http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/haque/2009/01/davos_discussing_a_depression.html" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/haque/2009/01/davos_discussing_a_depression.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Publius</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9700</link>
		<dc:creator>Publius</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2009 02:43:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9700</guid>
		<description>&quot;Franklin Roosevelt did not get full employment. It took about seven years.&quot;

Huh? Is Samuleson suggesting that FDR returned employment to its pre-recession levels (&quot;full employment&quot;) in seven years?

Yikes.

And this is also the second post that seems to suggest that the American electorate has shifted left, which I find hilarious.

Methinks people read into election results far too much. Electoral voting follows a pretty understandable ebb-and-flow, with agency accounting for deviations.

People that believe the US is *really* democratic because of the last election are as silly as those who believed Americans were neocons 4-8 years ago.

But I suppose its harmless, and incidentally serves as an excellent signal that the individual is data-mining for arguments and explanations of reality that fit their political predispositions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Franklin Roosevelt did not get full employment. It took about seven years.&#8221;</p>
<p>Huh? Is Samuleson suggesting that FDR returned employment to its pre-recession levels (&#8220;full employment&#8221;) in seven years?</p>
<p>Yikes.</p>
<p>And this is also the second post that seems to suggest that the American electorate has shifted left, which I find hilarious.</p>
<p>Methinks people read into election results far too much. Electoral voting follows a pretty understandable ebb-and-flow, with agency accounting for deviations.</p>
<p>People that believe the US is *really* democratic because of the last election are as silly as those who believed Americans were neocons 4-8 years ago.</p>
<p>But I suppose its harmless, and incidentally serves as an excellent signal that the individual is data-mining for arguments and explanations of reality that fit their political predispositions.</p>
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		<title>By: Fred</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9699</link>
		<dc:creator>Fred</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:13:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9699</guid>
		<description>The problem in Buzzcuts analysis is the top category ends at $100k. Therefore, the hedge fund manager with a trophy husband (or wife) and the nurse married to a fireman fall in the same top income category. Up to incomes of $250,000 years of education, # employed, full or part-time employment (or retired) are strongly correlated; although I should point out that correlation does not prove causation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The problem in Buzzcuts analysis is the top category ends at $100k. Therefore, the hedge fund manager with a trophy husband (or wife) and the nurse married to a fireman fall in the same top income category. Up to incomes of $250,000 years of education, # employed, full or part-time employment (or retired) are strongly correlated; although I should point out that correlation does not prove causation.</p>
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		<title>By: Nashvilian</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9693</link>
		<dc:creator>Nashvilian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 21:25:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9693</guid>
		<description>&quot;Buzzcut and Nashvilian, remind me how many Nobel Prizes you have? Right. 

Samuelson is correct. This economic crisis is the final apotheosis of the right-wing policies and governance of the past 30 years. We’ve had 4 business-oriented Presidents since 1980, all more or less pursuing the same failed and now-discredited policies.&quot;

Why do you hold that because a guy is a Nobel Prize winner  he can&#039;t be a partisan hack or an an FDR deciple? Why does, in your estimation, a Nobel Prize give it&#039;s recipient free reign to rewrite very recent history to leave out the tech bubble and the 9-11 attacks for consideration as a significant turning point in the economy?

&quot;Bush was only the most recent, and the policies pursued under him - including Iraq - have simply brought the crisis to its ultimate realization.&quot;

Remind me, in what years were you ever POTUS? Right.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Buzzcut and Nashvilian, remind me how many Nobel Prizes you have? Right. </p>
<p>Samuelson is correct. This economic crisis is the final apotheosis of the right-wing policies and governance of the past 30 years. We’ve had 4 business-oriented Presidents since 1980, all more or less pursuing the same failed and now-discredited policies.&#8221;</p>
<p>Why do you hold that because a guy is a Nobel Prize winner  he can&#8217;t be a partisan hack or an an FDR deciple? Why does, in your estimation, a Nobel Prize give it&#8217;s recipient free reign to rewrite very recent history to leave out the tech bubble and the 9-11 attacks for consideration as a significant turning point in the economy?</p>
<p>&#8220;Bush was only the most recent, and the policies pursued under him &#8211; including Iraq &#8211; have simply brought the crisis to its ultimate realization.&#8221;</p>
<p>Remind me, in what years were you ever POTUS? Right.</p>
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		<title>By: Nashvilian</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9692</link>
		<dc:creator>Nashvilian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 21:14:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9692</guid>
		<description>&quot;I’m no fan of Bush, but what the heck is this: &#039;that whole 9-11 thingy Bush threw together (you know, the controlled implosion of the World Trade Center at the cost of nearly bankrupting the insurance industry) to get us into endless wars&#039;.&quot;

It&#039;s sarcasm.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I’m no fan of Bush, but what the heck is this: &#8216;that whole 9-11 thingy Bush threw together (you know, the controlled implosion of the World Trade Center at the cost of nearly bankrupting the insurance industry) to get us into endless wars&#8217;.&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s sarcasm.</p>
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		<title>By: Buzzcut</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9691</link>
		<dc:creator>Buzzcut</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 20:44:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9691</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re making things too complicated.

Look, we know a lot of things from this data.

1) total number of households.

2) households in each income range.

3) demographic data about the households (number of income earners, educational attainment, hours worked).

4) You know how many households at each level of demographic data fall into each income range.

You just need to process the data:

1)Divide number of households for each demographic level by total number of households in that income level.

2) Multiply it by the demographic level.  For example, the number of households with 1 income earner gets multiplied by 1.

3) Take the average for the income level.

Using this procedure, for example, I found that the under $15k income range (with a median income of $7500) worked an average of 350 hours, had an avergae of .39 income earners, and an average of 12 years of education.  This is what got regressed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re making things too complicated.</p>
<p>Look, we know a lot of things from this data.</p>
<p>1) total number of households.</p>
<p>2) households in each income range.</p>
<p>3) demographic data about the households (number of income earners, educational attainment, hours worked).</p>
<p>4) You know how many households at each level of demographic data fall into each income range.</p>
<p>You just need to process the data:</p>
<p>1)Divide number of households for each demographic level by total number of households in that income level.</p>
<p>2) Multiply it by the demographic level.  For example, the number of households with 1 income earner gets multiplied by 1.</p>
<p>3) Take the average for the income level.</p>
<p>Using this procedure, for example, I found that the under $15k income range (with a median income of $7500) worked an average of 350 hours, had an avergae of .39 income earners, and an average of 12 years of education.  This is what got regressed.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9690</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 20:11:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9690</guid>
		<description>I looked at the excel file.  This makes no sense.  This is just a summary table giving the number of households in certain income ranges.  So, in fact, your dependent variable is just number of households, not income.  So, essentially, the regression is meaningless.  As education goes up, the number of households goes up?  Huh?  What you should do instead is get the data, summarized to all of the counties (or zipcodes, or MSAs, or some other geography) and measured on income, education, number of earners, as well as the many other variables that explain income - which you left out of your analysis.  Then, do an regression of income on the independent variables at the county level (or the MSA level, or the state level).  You can easily get this data using the Factfinder tool on the Census website.  Indeed, maybe later today I&#039;ll try it out and post the results.  Your regression is wrong because your dependent is nonsensical, and because you&#039;re not using raw data, instead you&#039;re just cherry-picking numbers off of a summary table and sticking them into a regression.  Go to Factfinder, use the raw data at different units of analysis (county, zip, MSA, whatever), control for the whole range of important independent variables, and then we can talk.  Otherwise, I&#039;ll just assume you&#039;re making crap up.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I looked at the excel file.  This makes no sense.  This is just a summary table giving the number of households in certain income ranges.  So, in fact, your dependent variable is just number of households, not income.  So, essentially, the regression is meaningless.  As education goes up, the number of households goes up?  Huh?  What you should do instead is get the data, summarized to all of the counties (or zipcodes, or MSAs, or some other geography) and measured on income, education, number of earners, as well as the many other variables that explain income &#8211; which you left out of your analysis.  Then, do an regression of income on the independent variables at the county level (or the MSA level, or the state level).  You can easily get this data using the Factfinder tool on the Census website.  Indeed, maybe later today I&#8217;ll try it out and post the results.  Your regression is wrong because your dependent is nonsensical, and because you&#8217;re not using raw data, instead you&#8217;re just cherry-picking numbers off of a summary table and sticking them into a regression.  Go to Factfinder, use the raw data at different units of analysis (county, zip, MSA, whatever), control for the whole range of important independent variables, and then we can talk.  Otherwise, I&#8217;ll just assume you&#8217;re making crap up.</p>
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		<title>By: Buzzcut</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9689</link>
		<dc:creator>Buzzcut</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 19:53:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9689</guid>
		<description>Just because you&#039;ve got a Nobel prize doesn&#039;t mean that you aren&#039;t a senile idiot.  Nor does it mean that your opinion has more weight in areas outside of the subject of said Nobel.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just because you&#8217;ve got a Nobel prize doesn&#8217;t mean that you aren&#8217;t a senile idiot.  Nor does it mean that your opinion has more weight in areas outside of the subject of said Nobel.</p>
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		<title>By: Buzzcut</title>
		<link>http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/02/03/paul-samuelson-on-the-crisis-george-bush-and-more/comment-page-1/#comment-9688</link>
		<dc:creator>Buzzcut</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2009 19:49:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=8357#comment-9688</guid>
		<description>Because the incomes are broken down into ranges.  0 to $15k, $15k to $30k, etc.  There are 7 income ranges.  I used the median in the range to do the regression.

The excel file I used is &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2008/tables/08s0670.xls&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here.&lt;/a&gt;  Feel free to run your own regression if you think I&#039;m wrong.  I explained in a previous post exactly what I did.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Because the incomes are broken down into ranges.  0 to $15k, $15k to $30k, etc.  There are 7 income ranges.  I used the median in the range to do the regression.</p>
<p>The excel file I used is <a href="http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2008/tables/08s0670.xls" rel="nofollow">here.</a>  Feel free to run your own regression if you think I&#8217;m wrong.  I explained in a previous post exactly what I did.</p>
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