Over the past few weeks, I have been taking a longer view of things, more like 100 years, to the end of the 21st century. However, 10 years of it is already almost gone! So when I read a recent issue of New Scientist on how to survive the rest of the century, I was rather surprised. In an article on “Surviving in a Warmer World,” under very simple conditions, a 4 degree C rise in global temperatures, results in the abandonment of most cities, the desertification of most of the world, the death of five billion people and the end of life as we know it. Although we do survive.
This is of course a simulation model, but I am not sure how many of us have focused on just the recent financial collapse and the global depression with the hopes that if we get out of this in the near term our troubles are over. Not only are our troubles not over, but getting out of the depression and surviving the present century are intertwined. For what a depression tells us is that the current consumption and investment trends are unsustainable financially. As Richard points out, the current investment in housing is not sustainable.
The current crisis comes from an over-investment in housing and all that goes with it and now under-consumption because of consumer debt. Society needs to put these two crises into perspective, and the way to move forward in this crisis is not just to reflate the economy at all costs (read: money expansion) but to stop consumption-led growth and start to focus on investment for the future – energy, environment, clean cars, etc.
This message is starting to sink in. Joseph Stiglitz, in a recent issue of the FT, pointed out that we can have several shots at the financial crisis until we get it right, but we only have one shot to get the environmental story right. I would argue that we do not have too many shots to get the economy and the environment right. The huge investments needed for the future cannot be put into the wrong place. If they are we might all be dead in the long run.
If one is going to invoke the creative class, and they are not going to destroy the financial sector, perhaps we can ask if the incentive structure is right to get them to focus on saving the environment from total collapse.
March 9th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
This is of course a simulation model,
Oh well, then, nevermind.
Why are climate models better than the financial models that helped get us into the financial crisis?
I know, climate models are based on physics, and financial models are based on… BS, apparently. But both suffer from a dearth of data upon which to calibrate the models.
I run into this problem a lot in engineering design. We’ve got great tools like Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software, but the software is often limited by things that we don’t know, like fluid properties. We often have to run experiments to get the data. Then the models work wonderfully.
My fear is that climate models ultimately are too complex to properly calibrate, and can’t possibly anticipate nonlinearities in how the real system works, not unlike what happened with financial models.
March 9th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
I just came back from a talk by Thomas Friedman and this is exactly what he talked about. The interplay of climate change, changing economics and population (Hot, Flat & Crowded.) He said that wherever he speaks, dozens of people come to him with business cards and say “I’m working on solar” (or wind, or electric cars, or whatever.) He says there’s a torrent of innovation going on, but the society needs to embrace and encourage it. Some of what’s necessary he says is for national policy to put true costs on things (air pollution, etc. into costs of cars or oil.)
Another thing he said, as Buzzcut says, is that climate change is happening much faster than the models predicted. The melting of the polar icecap which was predicted for 2050 is now expected in 2013!
He likened the 2 degree change in average world temperature to a 2 degree fever in a human being. Then a 4 degree, etc. At 102 you call a doctor, at 104 you go to the hospital. He said the difference in mean temperature between an ice age and a warming period like today is 12 degrees.
I went with my son in law and two of his friends, all high tech mechanical engineers, all looking to move into wind or solar.
He was being picketed outside by what seemed to be leftover socialists with anti-globalization leaflets.
The talk was free and sponsored by Ecotrust. Ecotrust’s founder and CEO started Conservation International and Friedman’s wife sits on the board. http://www.ecotrust.org/
March 9th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
I am in Australia and the Government says the sun can’t be relied on to provide solar power, even though this is the sunniest continent in the world and we have had 3.8mm of rain so far this year (i.e.no clouds). Funny that the news yesterday had a section asking if the Government was in tow to Big Carbon (even the fact that they get capital letters is scary!!).
I think this is a test case for the whole world – if Solar, wind (we have strong steady wind as we are near the roaring 40s) or wave (the longest coastline in the world) can’t be made to work here, where can it?
March 10th, 2009 at 4:04 am
Alan,
I’m sure that even the most powerful and most efficient solar panels, wind turbines and wave turbines can’t produce sufficient loads to drive heavy machinery and industrial plant that makes life bearable in places like Australia (i’m thinkin water desalination, purification and treatment, air conditioning, as well as manufacturing the goods that we depend upon).
Yes, renewables are the way forward – but as the original post points out, we need to drastically alter our concept of what life will be like in the future. We will survive – we will have energy, just not in the same magnitude or reliability as we have it now. We have to learn to do without the luxuries we have now and live more frugally. Renewables are only part of the answer – the rest of the answer is greater efficiency and less consumption.
March 10th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
I just got this e-mail from Van Jones, founder of Green for All, an organization that advocates for green jobs and industry. http://www.greenforall.org/?gfa_splash=1
I’ve been on this e-mail list for a while and Van is the real thing, working to bring blue collar workers and environmentalists together.
It’s long, but read as much as you want.
———————————————
Great news! I’m going to the White House! And Green For All has an amazing new leader!
Special Advisor For Green Jobs: Me
I will be at the White House Council on Environmental Quality. My job will be to help shape the administration’s energy and climate policy, so that climate solutions produce jobs and justice for all Americans.
I am going to be the Special Advisor for Green Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation.
Dispelling Some Rumors
If you’ve had your ear to the blogosphere in the past few days, you may have heard some rumors. The most prevalent call me the new “Green Jobs Czar.”
But I am not going to be any kind of “Czar.” If anyone were to be the “Green Jobs Czar” (a position that does not exist), it would and should be Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis. She was an original sponsor of the Green Jobs Act of 2007. Obama appointed her as the first Latina – and first green leader – to head the Department of Labor. Can anyone say “Green Jobs Czarina”?
Also, rumors that I will be handing out big piles of Recovery Act cash are utterly false. Unfortunately.
But enough about me. My new position with the Obama White House is not the only miracle that we are celebrating this week.
Green For All’s New Leader: Phaedra Ellis-Lamkins
The other magical development is the leader who will replace me at Green For All’s helm: Phaedra Ellis-Lamkins.
If you were writing a script or a novel, you simply couldn’t invent a better leader than Phaedra to take Green For All – and the entire movement for green jobs – to the next level.
As nearly everyone who lives in California already knows, Phaedra is a true superstar – widely recognized as one of America’s most brilliant, creative and successful social justice leaders. She helped to expand health care access in San Jose and across California. She also helped to raise the minimum wage for low-income families in the South Bay – twice.
As a result, San Jose Magazine named her one of the 100 most powerful people in Silicon Valley. The Silicon Valley Business Journal called her one of “40 leaders to watch under 40.” Presently, she is the head of the South Bay AFL-CIO Labor Council and also of Working Partnerships USA. She will join Green For All this month as its Chief Executive Officer.
Green Jobs: Moving From Inspiration to Implementation
Phaedra is the right leader to move Green For All forward. The movement for green jobs is shifting from a focus on inspiration to a focus on implementation.
And Green For All needs a top leader who has the practical know-how to get the job done.
For example, the green aspects of the recovery package will put billions of dollars on the table to repair our economy and restore our environment. But those dollars must travel a long way from the signing ceremony, through various levels of government, to get to communities across America. There are a thousand ways that folks from disadvantaged communities could be left out and left behind.
Phaedra knows how to translate public dollars and promises into good jobs for everyday people. She has a track record of winning real results. She commands the respect of labor leaders, elected officials, business leaders, social justice champions and environmentalists. Most importantly: she understands the nuts-and-bolts mechanics of tools that will get real work to real people on the ground – workforce development, community economic development, project labor agreements, community benefits agreements and more.
Green For All: From Start-Up Operation to Enduring Impact
Furthermore, with your support, Green For All has moved rapidly and successfully through its start-up phase. In just our first 14 months, Green For All has become a national organization with 32 staff members, a multi-million dollar annual budget, and an online network of 70,000 people. We have won a string of victories, most notably: $500 million from the federal government to support green job training programs across the country. These funds were an important part of President Obama’s Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
Now we are ready for the next-stage of leadership. Phaedra knows how to turn a start-up into an enduring organization. She has done it before. I am thrilled that she will do it again, at Green For All.
This year, the green jobs movement will be focused on helping to ensure equal access to the money in the green aspects of Obama’s recovery package, while winning jobs and justice in the upcoming federal climate legislation. To be successful, the green justice forces need to be able to work from the bottom-up and the top-down. Now we will be much better able to – on both fronts.
My move to the White House – and Phaedra’s move to Green For All – constitute a dramatic leap forward in the potential scale and impact of the movement for an inclusive, green economy. We ask for – and welcome – your support, love and prayers during this period, as we move from “hope” to change.
Green for all,
Van Jones, Founder