Comments on: Crisis Geography http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/03/25/crisis-geography-2/ The source on how we live, work and play Wed, 07 Dec 2011 18:10:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Patrick http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/03/25/crisis-geography-2/comment-page-1/#comment-11264 Patrick Thu, 26 Mar 2009 15:53:49 +0000 http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=9654#comment-11264 Curt, It's a good question, but I think it's way to early to issue a verdict on Richard's predictions. The collapse of manufacturing places has been decades in the making. The second graph seems to suggest that places like Flint, Hickory, Detroit, and Grand Rapids got "locked in" to manufacturing in the 1970's, and haven't gotten off of their previous trajectories yet. If we are to see a collapse of the "growth without growth cities" : Phoenix, Fullerton, Las Vegas- than surely it wouldn't happen in a few years. Also. unemployment is only one measure for decline. Phoenix's growth has already started to reverse- and i would guess that alot of the people who left were highly mobile construction workers who went back to their place of origin. Housing prices are, of course, way down and I don't think they will ever rebound to their previous highs. Water is still scarce. The border region is increasingly unstable. I don't think Phoenix is fated for decline. It can still bolster its connections to other places, boost densities, invest in human capital etc. But at this point, why would you bet on phoenix? Curt,

It’s a good question, but I think it’s way to early to issue a verdict on Richard’s predictions.

The collapse of manufacturing places has been decades in the making. The second graph seems to suggest that places like Flint, Hickory, Detroit, and Grand Rapids got “locked in” to manufacturing in the 1970’s, and haven’t gotten off of their previous trajectories yet. If we are to see a collapse of the “growth without growth cities” : Phoenix, Fullerton, Las Vegas- than surely it wouldn’t happen in a few years.

Also. unemployment is only one measure for decline. Phoenix’s growth has already started to reverse- and i would guess that alot of the people who left were highly mobile construction workers who went back to their place of origin. Housing prices are, of course, way down and I don’t think they will ever rebound to their previous highs. Water is still scarce. The border region is increasingly unstable.

I don’t think Phoenix is fated for decline. It can still bolster its connections to other places, boost densities, invest in human capital etc. But at this point, why would you bet on phoenix?

]]> By: Curt http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/2009/03/25/crisis-geography-2/comment-page-1/#comment-11232 Curt Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:03:24 +0000 http://www.creativeclass.com/_v3/creative_class/?p=9654#comment-11232 What I find interesting is that the city Richard singled out in his Atlantic piece to be hit the hardest - Phoenix - is actually outperforming some of the "Creative" economies like Seattle, at least in terms of unemployment. Any response? What I find interesting is that the city Richard singled out in his Atlantic piece to be hit the hardest – Phoenix – is actually outperforming some of the “Creative” economies like Seattle, at least in terms of unemployment. Any response?

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