That’s not science. That’s statistics. The reliance on statistics is why the evidence is so murky.

I think that the reliance on multiple regressions is where the problem lies. Almost by definition, because you can mess around with what variables you control for, multiple regression allows the regressor to almost come up with any result he or she wishes. It’s not science.

This is not only a problem with public health. Most social scientists there days are Excel jockeys.

Statistics, of course, have their place. Generally, that’s in a well designed experiment.

I agree with the above, except I would add that it’s up to all of us, not just the Obamas and not just the politicians. Yes, Michelle is setting a great example and Barack can make speeches on healthy diet.

But Obama can’t do everything and even if he could, it wouldn’t be the change the country needs. For far too long America has looked for the free lunch, the way to avoid personal responsibility for our actions. Real change happens at the grassroots, small group, family, individual level. Some of this is happening already with books, healthy eating classes, farmers markets and groceries like Whole Foods.

The politicians in Washington will get serious about our health when we do.

And Mike L as I’m sure you know, good diet has far more benefits than just weight loss, just as exercise does. My concern about people’s obsession with weight is that if they can lose weight with pills or fad dieting they think that’s all they need and their health will still deteriorate — although maybe slower. And I would add exercise to your #5 above.

This leads back to an earlier post about social support. For people to change their diet and exercise habits, it helps if they have family and group support. I lucked out in that I’m married to a woman who’s very food-health conscious and a great cook. I’ve also had the same running partner for over 25 years, there are many mornings I wouldn’t get up and on the streets if I didn’t know Kent would be waiting. Without the two of them I’d subsist on hamburgers and say “one of these days I’m going to start exercising.” One of the lessons of the current economic, political, environmental situations is we’re all in this together — not just all 300 million of us, but as groups of individuals.

If the politicians in Washington are serious about our health, they should all, from the President on down, immediately and conspicuously switch to healthy eating practices. Mrs. Obama seems to be well ahead on this – http://obamafoodorama.blogspot.com/ – so now is the right time for Pres. Obama’s “bully pulpit” on the issue …

1. Terribly inefficient record-keeping
2. Doctors’ resistance to new science (the “local practices” mentioned above)
3. Various practices by insurance companies of questionable ethical character, often enshrined in opaque, hard-to-understand contracts
4. Less emphasis on treatment, more emphasis on prevention
5. General ignorance of healthy eating practices

There is no silver bullet here; everything has to change.

True, “being alive” is the main indicator of health. But “diet and exercise” are cheap and effective. Google: – diet exercise control group – for plenty of medical studies with control groups.

Double blind, control group testing is one kind of science for small sample studies like pharmaceutical drug tests, but not the only kind. Large population public health studies of outcomes of numbers of people who have different treatments like surgeries, drugs, etc. are the kind of science needed for making best practices decisions in medicine. Benefits can be clear for high percentages of patients, but not for individuals. As we know, medicine for individuals is partly science, partly art, partly psychology and partly luck.

Any number of studies show the health benefits of exercise in terms of strength, balance, cardio-vascular health, lower bad cholesterol, better VO2 (oxygen use), less tendency to diabetes and high blood pressure, etc. As you imply, I agree that there’s way too much emphasis on weight as if it were the main indicator of health. Its not something I pay much attention to, but I’m blessed(?) with a fast metabolism.

Does excerice lead to lower weight? Does lower weight make you healthy?

The evidence is murky.

Yeah, good luck with that. Medicine, while partly science based, is not science. Nobody is doing a double blind experiment on your symptoms.

Medicine is evidence based, and the evidence is often murky. Costs are clear, but benefits are often not.

Most of all, medical mistakes are the 8th most common cause of death. Yikes!

That Taleb guy like to tell people that it wasn’t until the 1980s that the medical establishment saved more people than they killed. Not sure if its true or not, but as with much that Taleb says, it sounds cool!