I hope I win, these are all depressing — except the attack on Goldman, they’re looking more like profiteers all the time.

1. Unemployment will be above 11.5%. It is 9.5% now.

2. GDP 10% drop from peak. This one will be tough but I stick with it.

3. Afghanistan more casualties for all allied forces than this year at this time. Shall we say from July 1 this year through June 30, 2010 versus the previous year. Last year the count was 327.

4. Let’s make it a round number Obama’s popularity at 40% or below on June 30 2010.

5. A Congressional populist attack (political no violent) on Goldman Sachs or a bill controlling Fed by June 30 next year.

I am taking a lot of risk here on being proven wrong. 2 1/2 out of 5 is a draw.

Martin, the Marxist analysis may be why we disagree even though we agree. Back before I ever registered as a Democrat I thought of myself as a “small d” democrat anarchist-pacifist. Had lots of friends who were Marxists and had the same experience of agreeing on principles but not details.

If this isn’t forbidden in the blog, I’m in for $100. Are you giving odds? What decides the outcome, all have to occur, 3 of 5? I hope you’ll keep track, I’ll certainly forget in two years.

Martin, you would be very popular at one of those tea parties. Just don’t mention the Marxism.

Well, I like 3a at least.

1 would not surprise me, and with the Marines now on the offensive in Afghanistan, 2 is extremely likely.

We can only wish that 4 occurs!

1. unemployment next year at this time will be over 11.5% and GNP will have dropped 10% from its peak.

2. The death toll in Afghanistan will be greater on a y-to-y basis than it is this year.

3. Obama’s popularity will have dropped by 20% y-to-y.

3a. He will be a one term president.

4. There will be a populist attack on a major investment bank that will be virulent and affect its ability to do business.

Explicit predictions!

Also remarkably, the Republicans’ political gamble of “no” instead of “yes, but” hurt the country by leaving Obama’s stimulus bill in the exclusive hands of Pelosi, et als, and to the extent it’s loaded with pork, what would one expect from a bill driven entirely from one political electorate. More tax cuts and other compromises would have led it to be more effective generally. Yet, again, it is hard to argue objectively and cogently that the economy is not in a turnaround phase. In several months, about the time most Americans drop what they’re doing to take a look at what’s going on around them, during the holiday season, things will likely look swell and the country will be prepared to soak-up a beaming state of the union address, circa 2010.

Thank you all for the comments. Michael, though we support so many of the same things we always end up disagreeing. This is my take on the situation.

We Americans focus on the “future” and seem to not be interested in the past. This provides us with crackpot optimism. Obama declares to all the world, he is different from the past so forget about the past and take me at my word. This strikes most of the world as naive and suspicious. They think this is a “con” Never mind what we did before, just accept the “moment.”

I can guarantee you that Iraqis, Iranians, Afghans, and Chinese remember the past and operate on long time scales. Without thinking about and rectifying the mistakes of the past, one blindly blunders into the future. To ignore crimes of the past is to sanction their commission in the future.

Afghanistan was and will be Afghanistan yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Many years ago, I traveled extensively there and can tell you it was difficult to control — impossible for outsiders. The Taliban IS a government in waiting and it is approximately what I would expect to work there. The Taliban did solve the chaos of the previous period. When a situation is lost doubling down only deepens the losses. Michael we will accept the Taliban there because we will have no choice. We might as well get on with accepting it.

We need to think creatively about how to handle a post-NATO Afghanistan governed by the Taliban. What is it we can do in the context of that reality? We will not change the reality.

Unfortunately, on the critical issues — the economy and wars — Obama has not been creative but conservative. Not reconceptualized the problems, but rather accepted what the conventional wisdom is. Creativity in my book is reconceptualization, moving outside the box, accepting and working with the reality, but reworking it. Perhaps, what is most disappointing is that I have heard nothing new from him or his team.

Obama inherited huge problems that had been ignored or worsened for decades, like health care and climate change. Also the results of the incompetence and malevolence of the Bush Administration, like the two wars, the unbalanced economy and the alienation of almost the whole world. The financial crisis taking down banks and an auto industry that has been committing suicide for 30 years were immediate and demanding.

The Iraq war was a horrible mistake and Afghanistan mismanaged, but immediate pullouts from either would be disasterous. Unlike Vietnam, there’s no government in waiting that can take over and prevent chaos. The Taliban came to power last time because of a chaotic multi-party civil war. And ending military involvement when it happens shouldn’t mean abandoning rebuilding either country.

Not that Martin’s wrong. I just think in the scheme of things, some of his issues aren’t front burner. Any administration can count on two things. They will make many mistakes and face problems they didn’t anticipate.

From starting on health reform and climate change legislation, to rebuilding our global standing and partnerships, to at least halting the financial meltdown, to things that would seem major in usual times like stem cell research and a Supreme Court nominee, I think Obama has done as much as anyone could.