So the news last week was that the housing market was seemingly getting back on track. Take a gander at this, via Calculated Risk. Based on data put together by Matt Padilla, it tracks foreclosures in Orange County. Now Orange County has certainly been one of the harder hit markets, but still there is no turn around in the trend. The trajectory is straight up. And until foreclosures start to slow down, the housing market can’t really bounce back, now can it?
James Kwak weighs in here.
August 9th, 2009 at 10:05 am
Everyone around me both at work and in my social life is experiencing some kind of hardship and see no recovery anytime soon. From my perspective it would seem they are trying to put a positive spin on things in order to kickstart the economy, problem is, they’ve given everyone an electric shock and people are still feeling the effects. I guess with the american dollar depreciating they are creating an investment incentive. I say we are out of the woods by mid 2010, then an only then will we feel things are turning around. Just my two cents?
August 10th, 2009 at 2:17 am
Nonsense. Why does everyone want to be so pessimistic. Increased foreclosures burn-off overhang supply and establish a bottom. This market is about to catch fire across the Board, as I predicted six months ago. We have global stimulus plans coming to shore at the same time that the market self-corrects. We have historic lows in borrowing rates, labor costs, real estate costs (for purchase or lease), energy costs, relatively low taxes; all-time highs in productivity, the birth of global, mobile internet access; etc., etc. Not to mention that vast number of entrepreneurs that have been born by necessity over the past 6 months. Just think of how new technologies like the Apple app store have allowed new businesses to be born. Again, etc., etc.
All that said, we will realize increased inflation in the mid-term and possibly another bubble burst down the road; but we’re out of the woods on this market.
Death to the short-sellers!!
August 10th, 2009 at 6:05 am
I must admit I cannot predict the future but just assessing what is around me. Perhaps you have not been affected by the current climate and therefore cannot realize the situation. Everywhere you look business is down and the canadian dollar does not help the situation either. Taxes are going up (we have to pay for the stimulus packages somehow) and therefore the markets will continue to stand where they are. Energy prices, interest rates will all go up next year which will only prolong the current climate. The government needs to find a more sustainable way to keep the economy going.
P.S. The world does not revolve around apple!
August 10th, 2009 at 8:08 am
Everywhere you look business is down and the canadian dollar does not help the situation either. Taxes are going up (we have to pay for the stimulus packages somehow) and therefore the markets will continue to stand where they are. Energy prices, interest rates will all go up next year which will only prolong the current climate.
My advice to you, my friend, is to go West. The Tar Sands are about to go into overdrive. Every inland refinery in America is investing billions of dollars to be able to refine Canadian Tar Sands.
It is because of this expolosion in Canadian energy exports that the Canadian dollar has been appreciating to levels not seen since the ’70s (the last energy crisis).
This will be a hard change for the Ontario manufacturing interests that relied on a cheap dollar to stay competitive. The days of a cheap dollar are over.
August 11th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
You had better pray that our dollar decelerates otherwise you will see a lot of businesses close their doors. We are simply too entrenched with the U.S. at this point for the dollar to be where it is. No doubt the american dollar will fall since they are printing money at a never ending pace!