The road of the future – until they crumble – will be occupied by walkers, skaters, skateboarders, cyclists and resurgent wild animal populations.

Oil is only going to get more expensive as its supply dries up. The automobile as mechanical dinosaur will become extinct just as surely as the biological dinosaur did.

Silver’s “model” of car miles is based on a) a trend line, b) unemployment, and c) gas prices. As if NOTHING has changed in American society in that period that might be affecting the level of car usage?

Silver’s additional “evidence” that we might be moving to a car free existence consists of comparative home price changes during the depths of the housing crisis. The first set of cities: Vegas, Phoenix, and Detroit. The second set: Seattle and Portland.

Right. Those cities only differ on the variable “miles driven”. There is no other difference that might account for those housing price differences.

Does Silver even know that Portland has, in fact, been losing families?

Of course not. Silver runs a few statistics and makes some grand generalizations and then moves on to the next model.

There’s also a shift of values. Sure you can get attention for driving a nice car, but in urban areas that may be seen as tacky or striving. One can also get just as much attention for having the latest phone or going out to hipper night spots.

Finally, with young people leaving college deeply in debt and often carrying substantial credit card balances, adding another 20 or 30K to the debt load just isn’t feasible. As a result, you have people entering adulthood without a personal car ever being a part of the journey. They settle in urban spots with nearby mass transit and bus or bike to work and drinks. As adults who have learned how to thrive without a car, why would they take on that burden?

Additionally, many states now require multi-stage licensing that can significantly delay the age at which a kid gets their license.

As for the declining drivers licenses, I think that is also problematic. My nephews and nieces aren’t getting drives licenses because their parents aren’t willing to pay the insurance. Again, the demographics show that the percentage of children growing up in poverty or families with limited means have increased. Its not that kids are abandoning the car culture, its that they can’t afford it until they are out on their own.

Moreover, evaluating the decline in the percentage of miles driven by young people without considering the decline in their percentage of the adult population doesn’t tell you much about their personal choices. This article seems to be wishful (hopeful?) thinking.