Creative Class

It’s now well-accepted that the concentration of highly skilled people or of human capital is a key element of economic growth and development. Jane Jacobs argued that the clustering of talented and energetic people in cities is the fundamental driving force of economic development. The Nobel prize-winning University of Chicago economist Robert Lucas formalized Jacobs’ insights, showing that human capital externalities, or what have been called Jane Jacobs externalities, are indeed the key factor in economic growth and development.

But most economists measure human capital on the basis of population – the conventional measure being the percentage of adults with a bachelor’s degree or above. Our analysis here takes a different approach, getting at the density of human capital by looking at the number of adults with a bachelor’s degree per square kilometer.

The map below shows the human capital density of U.S. metros. The median human capital density across all U.S. metros is roughly 7.4 people per square kilometer. The densest metros have more than 100 degree holders per square kilometer, while the least dense have less than one. (more…)

Density is a key factor in innovation and economic growth. The dense geographic clustering of economic activities was true of the industrial behemoths of the past – steelmaking in Pittsburgh and automotive production in Detroit. And, despite advances in communications technology, it applies even more so today: from high-tech firms in Silicon Valley to film producers in Los Angeles and recording studios and record labels in Nashville. There’s no doubt: The geographic concentration of firms, industries, technologies, people, and other economic assets plays a powerful role in innovation and economic growth.

The great economist Alfred Marshall long ago outlined the dynamic of agglomeration – that is, the process by which co-location of related economic activities and assets shapes industries and economic development. Jane Jacobs showed us how the clustering of diverse groups of people, firms, and industries in cities provides the basic engine of innovation and new product development. Harvard’s Michael Porter has shown how clusters of related industries, customers, and suppliers power innovation and growth. Density makes it easier for people and firms to interact and connect with one another, and it reduces the effort, friction, and energy that’s used to make these connections. Density increases the speed at which new ideas are conceived and diffused across the economy, accelerating the speed with which new enterprises and new industries are created.

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On Tuesday, The Daily Beast ran my new Housing-Mortgage Stress Index. While the U.S. housing market saw a sharp drop in July and millions of homeowners remain underwater, housing market troubles vary significantly by metro region.

The Housing-Mortgage Stress Index shows the U.S. metros whose housing markets — and homeowners — face the highest levels of stress and danger of foreclosure and falling prices. The index, developed with my collaborator Charlotta Mellander, is based on three variables:

• Negative equity — percent of mortgages where owners owe more than their homes are worth.
• Loan-to-value ratio — total Mortgage Debt Outstanding divided by Total Property Value — both from Core Logic.
• Monthly mortgage cost-to-income ratio from the U.S. Census American Community Survey.

The index weights all three variables equally and covers 142 U.S. metros. (more…)