Creative Class

In her September 3 blog post, “Creative Florida”, Rana Florida asked for thoughts about Florida tourism. As a resident of St. Petersburg, Florida, I thought I should respond.

Tourism has long been the golden goose in Florida but it is also a double-edged sword. We have no state income tax in large part due to the sales tax revenue that tourism provides. When the tourists come, the coffers fill and all is well. When we have downturns in the economy or other disruptions (such as hurricanes or 9/11) our budgets shrink. This volatility prevents us from having a predictable revenue stream which in turn means less long-term planning.

For better or worse, tourism also defines Florida. For many it is great to have that identity but I know a lot of creative class entrepreneurs in high-tech who lament that they can’t attract talent or VC interest because no one takes Florida seriously as a business environment.

But to me the largest impact of tourism is that it has made us lazy (I say this with love, Florida!). Tourism is easy money and we have coasted on that for too long. When the tourists just arrive with bags of money, why innovate? Why invest in our schools or our infrastructure? Why make the hard tax choices when we can raise the bed tax on hotel rooms or local tax on car rentals? We need to rethink tourism and make it a higher value experience, one that leverages the service economy and makes it more creative and innovative.

Florida had a wake-up call last year when, for the first time since WW2, we had a net outflow of population. That is a seismic shift in the underpinnings of Florida’s economy and I hope that it forces us to look at diversifying our economy and making the harder choices of developing industries beyond the beach and theme park.

Yesterday, I posted on the new Prosperity Index that ranked Finland first, Canada seventh, and the United States ninth. Last evening, my colleague Charlotta Mellander took a quick look at some factors that might be associated with a high ranking, running some simple statistical correlations. The most highly correlated factors (all with a correlation coefficient above .75): total factor productivity, human capital, the creative class, GDP per capita, and entrepreneurship. The Prosperity Index was highly correlated with the UN Human Development Index (at nearly .9) and reasonably so with a Gallup’s measure of subjective well-being or happiness (just a hair under .75).

A new report on prosperity ranks Finland first and the United States ninth. Scandinavian and North European countries dominate the top spots. Canada is seventh. The report looks at nine factors that shape prosperity – economic fundamentals, entrepreneurship and innovation, democratic Institutions. education, health, safety and security, governance, personal freedom, and social capital.

A story in this morning’s news caught me up. Social Security is apparently in trouble because more people than expected are taking early retirement, often after losing jobs and failing to find new ones. This is making demands on S.S. payouts sooner than expected and drawing down the “trust fund.”

But wait a moment, wasn’t the problem last week that boomers weren’t retiring fast enough? The next generation in line is being denied promotions because their elders aren’t quitting fast enough.

It brings to mind the old country-western song, “How can I miss you if you won’t go away?”

The first story:

Big job losses and a spike in early retirement claims from laid-off seniors will force Social Security to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes the next two years, the first time that’s happened since the 1980s.

The deficits – $10 billion in 2010 and $9 billion in 2011 – won’t affect payments to retirees because Social Security has accumulated surpluses from previous years totaling $2.5 trillion. But they will add to the overall federal deficit.

Applications for retirement benefits are 23 percent higher than last year, while disability claims have risen by about 20 percent. Social Security officials had expected applications to increase from the growing number of baby boomers reaching retirement, but they didn’t expect the increase to be so large.

What happened? The recession hit and many older workers suddenly found themselves laid off with no place to turn but Social Security.

“A lot of people who in better times would have continued working are opting to retire,” said Alan J. Auerbach, an economics and law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “If they were younger, we would call them unemployed.”

The second story:

The financial downturn has left all sorts of casualties in its wake: more unemployment, depressed wages, and greater economic uncertainty. But I’d like to direct my angst at a different target — the baby boomers.

A hidden effect of this crisis is that, in the workplace, as in popular discourse, they simply refuse to get out of the way.

To understand my lament, you have to realize that the oldest of the baby boomers are on the cusp of retirement. For younger generations, this should be a cause for relief. For decades, Gen X-ers like myself have had to hear the standard declarations about the uniqueness of the baby boomers. Maybe they were not the Greatest Generation, but they were the ones who glorified the whole idea of generational identity. For decades, Gen X-ers have had to hear complaints about our political apathy, our popular culture, and our musical tastes.

We have suffered many of these critiques without complaint. Why? Because so many of us worked for so many of them. They were the bosses of the business world. And they were supposed to be retiring very soon, but the recession has changed all that.

In 2008, U.S. workers aged 55 to 64 who had 401(k)’s for at least 20 years saw their retirement balances drop an average of 20 percent. A recent YouGov poll showed two-thirds of this generation have not made the necessary adjustments in their financial planning. This is not a recipe for leaving the workforce anytime soon.

What does this mean for the rest of us? Younger workers who expected promotions when the boomers cleared out are going to have to stew in their own juices. With this job market, looking for a better opportunity elsewhere is not in the cards.

Leaving aside the Boomer bashing, this seems to be a contradiction. Are Boomers retiring early or not? I suspect that some of what’s happening is class based. The managerial and Creative Class 60-somethings are continuing to work because they can and often want to – their skills are relevant, they’re not caught in large layoffs and if they need to they can consult. On the other hand, working class, non college-educated boomers who are laid off aren’t finding jobs – their health care costs are high and they’re expensive to hire. So many of them who can’t find work may be taking Social Security at 62 in spite of the disadvantages (smaller checks, limits on earned income).

Does anyone have statistics on who’s retiring and who’s keeping working?

As previously discussed on this blog, in Canada this recession has pushed a number of people into self-employment. In the U.S., the trend has been less pronounced. Yet I suspect one part of the trend is happening, or soon will, in America – the move by many firms to hire “contract” employees who technically are not employees in that no deductions are taken from their pay and no extended medical or dental benefits are offered.

In Canada, some of the newly self-employed are launching new entrepreneurial start-up businesses that eventually may hire dozens of people or more. Entrepreneurship seems to be doing better in Canada than it has in a while.

But many “self-employed” persons are working on contracts in positions that were formerly salaried. A corporate recruiter recently explained the trend in the Globe and Mail:

Jeff Aplin, Calgary-based executive vice-president with David Aplin Recruiting, has also noticed a shift to more temporary work. Across Canada, he’s seen a surge of demand for contract consultants in accounting, engineering or IT to work a fixed term with a fixed task. “There’s definitely more appetite for a flexible work force” he says.

Because the 21st century economy will likely require the ability to adapt and change quickly, successful companies will likely want a certain percentage of their staff to be on fixed term contracts. Contractors may be a larger part of the future workforce.

Just because employers prefer it doesn’t mean those with talent to “sell” will want it. (And the unemployment rate in many skilled areas isn’t that high so, even in this down time, employees have some power here). Presumably, contractors receive some advantages, such as increased pay to compensate for the lower benefits.

So, for contractors, what are the advantages? What will employers need to offer in the future to have a healthy pool of contractors to choose from when they need them?

Do you primarily work on contract, doing work that others are paid on salary for?

Do you like the freedom? Or would you prefer a salaried position with set vacation allotments, benefits, etc.?

The big story last week was the census report on the fall-off in Americans’ incomes. The New York Times‘ David Leonhardt called it a “lost decade” with 2008 median household income of $50,303 falling beneath the 1998 figure of $51,295. While the national pattern is troubling, the trend in U.S. income varies widely by state.

Kevin Stolarick, research director of the Martin Prosperity Institute, compiled state-by-state statistics comparing incomes in 2007-2008 and 2005-2006.

The first map below shows the change in income for the 50 states. There were some big losers – New Jersey (-$7,214), Vermont -($5,757), Georgia (-$3,304), Delaware (-$2,558), Minnesota (-$2303), Tennessee (-$2218), Arizona (-$1,891) and Florida (-$1,890).

But there were also some big income gainers – Colorado ($4,658), North Dakota ($4,412), Oklahoma ($3,998), Alaska ($3,756), New Hampshire ($3,663), D.C. ($3,467), and Alabama ($3,405).

The second map shows the percent change in income by state.

Once again we see the patterns of winners and losers. Unlike in the nation as a whole, incomes actually increased in 29 of 50 states. Eight states saw income gains of more then five percent – Oklahoma (9.6 percent), North Dakota (9.2 percent), Alabama (8.4 percent), Colorado (8.1 percent), D.C. (6.8 percent), Alaska (6.2 percent), New Hampshire (5.7 percent), and Oregon (5.0 percent).

On the other hand, two states saw income losses of 10 percent or more – Vermont (-10.3 percent) and New Jersey (-10.1 percent); and incomes declined by more than five percent in two others – Georgia (-6.4 percent) and Tennessee (- 5.1 percent).

Business Week economist Michael Mandel has produced a terrific chart comparing college costs to the earnings of young college graduates (25- to 34-year-olds) from 1991 to 2008 (below).

While the lines track one another for most of the 1990s, they began to diverge by the late 1990s, and the gap has grown considerably over the past decade. Mandel finds that college costs in real terms are up by 23 percent since 2000, while real pay for young college grads has fallen by 11 percent.

Money quote:  “This can’t go on. It’s just not possible.”

In Canada, the number of self-employed people has been rising month after month during this recession. Recently, the thousands going into business for themselves have mitigated many of the employment losses and made the Canadian job numbers look reasonably rosy in comparison to the declines happening in the U.S.

The Globe and Mail referred to this as “The Do-It-Yourself” recovery.

On the one hand, this seems logical in a recession – losing a job can be the spark that pushes people into business for themselves. Yet, on the other hand, the same phenomenon does not appear to be happening in the United States. So, what’s happening and what’s significant?

The divergent self-employment trends may be an indicator of different employment, economic, and workplace trends in the two countries.

It should be noted that some economists argue that self-employment is inferior to full-time, salaried employment and thus should be considered an indicator of economic weakness rather than strength in Canada. However, because the numbers of self-employed are growing so early – when collecting EI benefits would still be an option – it suggests this shift to self-employment is more of a deliberate choice than a move made in desperation.

Also, the 55+ age group has been the dominant demographic group shifting into this category in Canada – it may be that well-educated baby boomers are seeking more flexibility and the option to “cash in” on their years of experience and extensive contacts made over the years. Because basic health care coverage is universal in Canada, the aging baby boomers may feel more free to leave their large employer (or not seek another if their employer laid them off).

Implications:

Could this give the Canadian economy the productivity boost (to catch up to American levels) that has been lacking? That is, in pure economic productivity terms, would it be more efficient for many corporations to hire the talent they need when and as they need it via contracting the self-employed?

From the talent’s perspective, could this be the style that allows much better control over work and life balance?

Can salaried staff and free agents work together on teams (when the free-agents might be working on several projects simultaneously for different companies)?

Flipping the coin, does it matter that the U.S. self-employment rate is not growing?

Your thoughts?

Mysociety.org has created this amazing application to help citizens in London determine where they can live based on commute times, affordability and “scenicness.” The program is in beta but this short video below demonstrates its awesome potential. (To take the Who’s Your City? place finder, click here.)

This is the potential open data can unleash. Because MySociety can access transit and train schedules as well as real estate prices, they are able to mash up this data and create this map. Still more interesting is how they crowd-sourced the collection of a new data set. Those who watched the video may have noticed how the “scenicness” of an area came from people voting on how nice photos of different neighborhoods looked.

Mysociety also does maps that just show transit times and they are looking for funding to build them out in different cities.

Of course, the job is made a whole lot easier – and can be kept up to date – if the data is being shared in a format that constantly allows for updates. Just another example of how Open Cities can again better serve their citizens.

(via BoingBoing)

The economic crisis continues to reshape our economic geography.

Despite short-term hits, the world’s leading financial centers, New York and London, are likely to remain on top through the crisis and beyond, according to Peking University professor Michael Pettis, writing in Newsweek:

Financial crises tend to trigger overwrought predictions of major economic shifts–and then debunk them. Today’s global economic meltdown is no different. In recent months, it has become popular to predict that New York and London (or NyLon, as they’re together known) will soon lose market share as cities in the emerging world use the crisis to wrest away dominance. But history suggests that the opposite is more likely: that New York and London will actually increase in importance over the decade to come …

Big centers have two huge advantages over smaller rivals: greater liquidity and larger networks. Big investors tend to flock to big financial capitals because they offer higher volume and lower trading costs, and issuers of stocks, bonds and other financial products follow the flock of investors. …When a liquidity boom ends, however, it tends to accentuate the advantages of big markets while diminishing those of smaller ones.

China Digital Times picks up China Law Blog’s similar reading about:

why New York will remain as the world’s financial capital and why, despite the projected growth of Asia’s economies, we should not expect Shanghai, Hong Kong, or anywhere else to usurp it. At least not for an exceedingly long time.

Older Rustbelt centers continue to get clobbered by the structural decline of manufacturing. Job losses at bankrupt automakers GM and Chrysler have been highly concentrated in older Rustbelt centers as this NYT map shows.

And, the sun continues to set on shallow-rooted Sunbelt cities, according to this Associated Press analysis.

Some cities — Las Vegas, Phoenix, Fort Myers are good examples — hitched their floats to housing bubbles and got caught up in development that depended largely on, well, development itself, rather than sustainable, scalable, productive industry, economic analysts say. …

AP Stress Index figures, which calculate the economic impact of the recession on a scale of 1 to 100, illustrate how the downturn has played out in some of these communities:

In Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, the Stress Index more than doubled from 5.12 at the beginning of the recession in December 2007 to 12.67 in March 2009, worsened by a foreclosure rate that nearly tripled.

Mounting foreclosures in Las Vegas’ Clark County drove up its Stress Index score from 10.5 at the start of the recession to 19.3 in March 2009.

In Lee County, home to Fort Myers, unemployment has doubled and foreclosures have soared 75 percent since the recession began, lifting its Stress Index from 10.5 to 19.98 …

Now Phoenix’s hotel industry is tanking, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“Phoenix suffers from the dual challenges of overbuilding and shrinking demand due to the national drop-off in corporate conferences,” said David Loeb, a hotel-industry analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co. “All of this means that Phoenix’s hotel market has experienced one of the steepest downturns among the big markets.”