When I wrote it way back in 2005, I argued that the biggest competitive threat facing the U.S. – and in fact the key to economic competitiveness – is the continued ability to attract global talent. Many simply smirked – thinking not a problem, really, because the world is flat – in a flat world after all, you no longer have to emigrate in order to innovate. Check out this ABC News Report:
Job losses and fears of a recession could lead more foreign workers and students in the United States to move back to their home countries – and that has some economic observers worried.
Vivek Wadhwa, an executive resident at Duke University and a senior research associate at Harvard, believes that the United States is headed for a massive reverse brain drain … “It’s a ticking time bomb for the U.S.,” the former entrepreneur said. “If they [foreign nationals] go back to their home countries, not only will we lose critical talent we need for the future, we will also bolster our competition.” … In the current climate, when hiring has declined, visa restrictions – which make it harder for workers to stay in the U.S. without a job – create significant challenges for foreign workers. … Large companies that traditionally recruited foreign talent on visas has declined as many have cut back on hiring. … Foreign students and workers tend to go back to their home after a certain period of time – often because of family – but that trend is likely to accelerate.It’s usually the best and brightest who come to U.S. universities to study, and when they go back to their home countries, they tend to move to industries that compete with those in the United States, such as engineering, information technology and research and development.”They are fueling the rise of India and China,” said Wadhwa, who predicts that in the next five years, 100,000 Indian and Chinese workers and students will move back. That would be a considerable number, given that it matches the amount who have left over the last 20 years. But it is not just the economic downturn and visa issues that are keeping foreigners from working in the United States. Educators say opportunities abroad, specifically in Asia, also are luring both foreigners and U.S. citizens.
Economic and financial crises are one thing. But they hurt far worse when they begin to redirect the global flow of talent. In his seminal history of global economic and financial centers, Capital of Capitals, Youssef Cassis argues that the shift from one economic and financial center to another usually requires a catacylismic event like a war or economic crisis and accompanying restrictions on global inflows of talent. The financial crisis is really just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.