Talk about post-convention bounce. A new Gallup poll has McCain now up by 10 points over Obama, 54-44. Lots of fluctuation and other polls have it much closer. Alan Brinkley opines in the Wall Street Journal that in a post-partisan world, voters are driven by wedge issues and the “attractiveness” of candidates. An ABC poll says white women are flocking to McCain-Palin who lead in this demo 53-41. Quite a turnaround from Obama, up 50-42 before the conventions (data via pollster.com).
But such macro perspectives miss the underlying reality of American politics. It’s all about geography.
Obama has the creative class states wrapped up, no doubt; but these are highly concentrated.
The political geography of the election turns on a handful or so of swing states: Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.
From where I sit, this poses a real challenge for Obama. Seems to me, the whole kit and caboodle turns on whether Obama can mobilize enough young people and black voters to turn those states.
Looking at this emerging political geography, which way do you think the election will swing?