Chris Bowers, who is one of the most insightful political commentators around, has a must-read essay, “The End of Bubba Dominance,” on the tectonic shifts that are reshaping American politics over at The Nation (non-gated version here).
Major realignments are, in my view, largely class-based. It was the rise of the working class as a coherent Democratic force under FDR which consolidated the period of Democratic dominance in 1932. Since the late 60s, political scientists say we’ve seen realignment - which makes sense actually in light of the ongoing underlying shift in the economy and class structure - the decline of the working class and the rise of the creative and service classes.
The real key to long-lasting realignment turns on which party can organize, or at least aggregate, the creative class. The Democrats have advantage with their posture on social freedoms and self-expression as well as the environment and health care. But the GOP has advantage too, with its inclination toward economic freedom, market forces, entrepreneurship, and free trade. Obama is a unique candidate in that he appeals to younger voters and African-Americans as well as the creative class, so he has an almost peculiar ability to mobilize new voters in ways other candidates might not.
Bowers argues we may not be at the point of realigmnet yet, but the GOP can no longer count on members of the anxiety of declining class groups to swing elections.
For my money, I believe Obama can make a cross-class appeal by emphasizing one simple message: every single American worker is creative, and the task of economic policy is to enhance, encourage, and reward that creative effort - in everything from manufacturing and services to arts and high tech.
Do you think Obama can realign the American electorate by organizing the creative class and building a stable cross-class coalition? Can McCain appeal to enough independents as well as key GOP constituencies to prevail? Or is a realignment still a ways off?
August 18th, 2008 at 9:18 am
I do believe that the party that is better able to attract creative class voters will have a distinct advantage in the long run. However, the practical problem for politicians is that the creative class is much more difficult to mobilize as a whole because it isn’t tied to a dominant organization or social institution that serves as a proxy for its interests. The base of the working class voters of the Democratic Party is largely tied to the labor unions, who provide the foot soldiers and ground support to get people to the polls on Election Day. This happens on the other side of the aisle with “values voters” and evangelicals in the Republican Party that have strong ties with churches, who provide their own organizational support on the ground. There is no equivalent of the labor union or church structure that exists within the creative class, which would appear to make sense since creative class members are generally more independent (at least in terms of economic and social issues) in the first place. Giving a speech in front of the leaders of the AFL-CIO or, as both McCain and Obama did this weekend, Rick Warren’s congregation at Saddleback Church are relatively easy ways to address the working class and evangelical audiences, respectively, but it’s difficult to imagine any type of similar platform to reach the creative class. When voter turnout is such an important factor in winning the swing states that determine an election, it’s not surprising that politicians continue to go back to the same arguments in front of the same groups that provide strong ground level organizations every election cycle. Either party can put forth a platform that would be attractive to the creative class at a policy level. The key question, though, is whether it’s really possible to mobilize a group that has a disproportionate share of independents at the ground level.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
There’s a lot of angst among commentators about why the Democratic presidential nominee isn’t commanding the polls. But the wonder isn’t that Obama isn’t further ahead. The wonder is that a dark skinned intellectual with a funny name is seriously competitive at all.
I think the whole “post-partisan” rhetoric is overblown, that the shift between D’s and R’s is class based, and that the “Emerging Democratic Majority” will be based on shifts of groups/voting blocs. This is politics of policy and group self-interest. The Creative Class will figure into this.
But Obama is something else. His looks and his background moves Middle America’s choice beyond policy into almost soul-searching. For decades the R’s have won by playing on fear of people that look like him. (In fairness, for decades before that Southern Democrats did the same thing.) Obama requires people to face that head on. His nomination is a direct challenge to the politics of race.
This campaign will be hard fought, much of it out of sight in people’s psyches. If America can elect Obama, we will have undergone a national transformation with enormous consequences. I believe we can, but its not going to be easy, or pretty.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:43 am
I think Michael misses the undercurrents noted in the essay. The parties no longer dominate politics. Class dominates politics and the parties have launched a clumsy attempt to adapt to something they don’t understand. Obama appreciates this more than McCain and he’s begun to adjust his economic policies to coalesce with these realities. It would be hard to characterize him as an orthodox liberal at this point. But McCain has departed sharply from the GOP too and gotten away with it only because the GOP is, frankly, so left-for-dead that it has no relevant voice of its own anyway– so it stubbornly goes along with McCain, even as he runs an ad exclaiming that the US is worse off today that it was 4 years ago.
Now we have folks like T. Boone Pickes, your prototypical conservative, launching a new energy initiative on a grass roots level and gaining the support of groups like Sierra Club along the way. Who would have ever dreamed that possible even a couple of years ago!! Note also that he met with Obama recently.
Re-alignment is rapidly occurring before our eyes. The post-partisan movement is well underfoot. And it will continue regardless of who becomes our next President. McCain and Obama will both be remembered as critical change agents. On a smaller scale, but much like Reagan and Gorbachev, these two will be remembered for their shared goals and joint achievements– as two special people who history brought together at the right time to bring a sea change to what had been hostile siege warfare between two entrenched organizations.
One other important note, religion has been re-claimed by the middle after having been held hostage by the Falwells and Robertsons of the world for far too long.
August 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Did you see the Obama ads in the Olympics of old and new economy jobs? “The hands that build roofs can also install solar panels….” They’re the closest thing I’ve seen to the “every single worker is creative” message Richard is talking about.
Personally I thought they were a little too soft focus, I expected them to turn into life insurance ads — I’d have preferred a little more edge, but I may not be the target market. The thing is they approached policy without being too wonkish. The most effective presidents — FDR, Kennedy, Reagan and even Clinton were masters of taking complex policy and putting into ordinary terms. I don’t think Obama has gotten there yet in his speeches, but this is a start.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:41 am
I think candidate Obama has evolved tremendously and showing signs that he gets it. So is McCain to his credit by lacks the dynamic presence of Obama. Obama will ultimately be celebrated as one of greatest and most transcendent Presidents in modern history if the Russia-Georgia conflict doesn’t responsive itself. That said, McCain-Obama positions should really lend themselves to pending hearings.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:27 pm
“but it’s difficult to imagine any type of similar platform to reach the creative class.”
Try harder. The necessary institutions don’t exist quite yet in their final ‘institutional’ form, but they are being created as we speak. Consider the following: Wikis (including Wikipedia), group weblogs (from BoingBoing to HuffPo), weblog aggregators (from simple ‘planets’ to memeorandum), Digg and Reddit, Youtube, EveryBlock, and so on. Add to that the partisan platforms such as my.barackobama.com and moveon.org, and you can see where this is heading.
It is no mere coincidence that these platforms for *participation* appeal more to members of the Creative Class than other groups (even if they don’t actually participate), because these platforms are themselves being *created* by the Creative Class.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:54 am
Hold it Michael, all the items you mentions are two edge swords. The Conservatives make use of the same media and for evrery Huffpo there is a Powerlineblog.com. So don’t think the Bubbas are sitting around waiiting for the Left to take over the reigns of power. As for Obama, I call him Senator Empty Suit. He’s never in his career faced a real,strong opponent. He was even lucky against Hillary who made the mistake of assuming inevitability. When she finally woke up she whipped his butt in TX, OH, PA. Obama simply could not put her away and it was only the superdelegates who saved his bacon. And of course those are the very delegates whose influence the McGovern reforms were suppose to diminish. So in the end Obama’s nomination, if he gets it, will come out of a smoke-filled room. If of course any of the superdelegates actually smoke.
August 24th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Charles, we aren’t really talking about left and right, but the Creative Class. Yes, I used two left-aligned examples, and it is true that the CC is *currently* largely aligned with the Democratic Party, but I wouldn’t count on it staying that way.
However, the conservative positions that would actually appeal to the CC are *not* the same as those being promoted on conservative sites, and the rates of participation aren’t at all similar. Just compare how many folks participate on PowerLine vs. HuffPo:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/aboutus.php
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/p/huffington-post.html
Finally, the tools are certainly available to everyone, but take a look at what happens when the die-hard Bubba and Evangelical conservatives use them in truly participatory ways: Conservapedia (which I won’t link to).
August 25th, 2008 at 12:29 am
“Do you think Obama can realign the American electorate by organizing the creative class and building a stable cross-class coalition?”
Actually, it’s precisely because Obama has the potential to do this that I opted to support him over a year ago. Will it work? Well, it certainly won’t be easy. Just at having succeeded thus far–in the face of tough odds, rampant racism, and xenophobia, I think he and his campaign leadership are moving us all in the right direction. And Biden will likely help bridge gaps to working class communities in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The shots of them in Springfield certainly provided a compelling visual of a cross-class union.
As for whether or not a shift during this cycle will be stable and lasting…that’ll depend, I think, more on whether or not Obama’s term in office is generally regarded as successful.
You know, for me, the change meme has never been so much about tossing out all current politicians. (Some ARE decent, after all, a point lost in too many hand-wringing online forums.) Nope, I think that the change message is about the electorate grasping the idea that the power to move the nation’s course rests in our own hands. That was the spirit in which Obama’s 2004 speech was delivered, no? I think that is a message that appeals across all kinds of lines, including class. I’d like to see Obama/Biden hit that harder. Maybe they will…
(Oh, and I quite agree about the commercials, Michael. Good point. And nice to see this interactive section of the site up, Richard! Has it really been five years since the Memphis Manifesto?)