Felix Salmon says there’s no end in sight for the housing bust, pointing to the latest edition of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Housing prices are off 36 percent since their 2006 peak. Housing prices have fallen back to 2002 levels in nominal terms but, as Business Week’s Prashant Gopal notes, they’ve plunged to 2000 levels when adjusted for inflation. Calculated Risk (with great graphics as usual) predicts another 10-20 percent drop,
Regional differences remain pronounced. Phoenix and Las Vegas are down more than 50 percent from their peak values, while Dallas is off only 11 percent. Dallas, Denver, Boston, Charlotte, and New York appear to be holding up best. New York prices remain 73 percent above their 2000 levels, Detroit’s are nearly 30 percent below – in line with their 1995 levels.
May 29th, 2009 at 12:28 am
I’m not sure I’m reading it right, but the Case-Shiller chart on the Salmon article looks like it’s up about 30% from 2002 nationally. Zillow shows Portland up 75% since 2000 and about 60% since 2002, even after a roughly 20% drop.
A house on our street just sold for about 15% over its Zillow estimate, which is consistent with sales price vs Zillow ratios 3-4 years ago for this neighborhood. I’d guess it was full asking price, it’s a good basic house but lots of deferred maintenance. A friend not in our neighborhood sold her house in weeks, got 2 offers above her asking price, again for more than the Zillow estimate.
Am I in denial or an alternate reality?