Creative Class

New research by the Gallup Organization finds that 700 million people – 16 percent of the world’s total population – would like to move to a different country than the one they currently call home.

The first map below shows the percentages of people in various regions of the world that desire to permanently move to another country.

The second map shows the places these movers would most like to relocate to.

Gallup also compiled a very interesting index of potential net migration which compares “the estimated number of adults who would like to move out of a country permanently subtracted from the estimated number who would like to move to it,” as a proportion of the total population. Here are the top five and bottom five countries. Interestingly, the United States did not make the top five.

The Wall Street Journal asked six experts to come up with lists of the “next youth magnet cities.” I was one of them. The top spot was a tie – D.C. and Seattle, followed by NYC, Portland (OR), Austin, San Jose, Denver, Raleigh-Durham, Dallas, Chicago, and Boston. You can see the list and read the full story here.

Below is what I sent to the Journal.

My Rankings
These are based on my own rankings of the best places for young, professional singles, aged 20-29 in Who’s Your City?, as well as other rankings and surveys and my reading of current trends. The data are from Kevin Stolarick, additional analysis by Charlotta Mellander, and research assistance by Patrick Adler, my colleagues at the Martin Prosperity Institute.

1) New York City
The country’s largest city was the top destination for recent graduates according to the career-cast survey noted below. The city’s size affords migrants an economic diversity that simply cannot exist in smaller places. It’s the place to be if you’re in finance, fashion, entertainment, publishing, or even indie music. Also unparalleled is the city’s mythic status, as a place to test one’s mettle against the best and the brightest. One of the top five on my own rankings of the best places for young, single, 20-29-year-olds.

2) Washington, D.C
The public sector is ascendant and, in the eyes of many, Barack Obama is America’s coolest boss. These factors will only bolster Washington, D.C., a city that is already a hotbed of young talent. 45.9 percent of Washington, D.C.’s workforce has a bachelor’s degree or more, and young people enjoy positions of influence on congressional staffs and at think tanks. And it is a center for media, journalism, and blogging as well as high-tech. D.C. is the top city in my own rankings of best places for young singles aged 20-29. If I was 23 or 24 again, it’s where I’d head.

3) San Francisco/ Silicon Valley
Still the world’s high-tech hot spot. One of the top five on my own rankings. Great quality of life, a large stock of smart, driven young people, and fantastic restaurants and outdoor activities.

4) Chicago
If management or industry is your thing, Chicago is the place to be. It’s the talent magnet for the midwest and beyond, drawing driven young people by the droves. It has great amenities, great nightlife, a spectacular waterfront, great restaurants, and it’s affordable.

5) Boulder/ Denver
Yes, it’s smaller than the others, but it packs a real punch. Boulder ranked No. 1 among all U.S. destinations on my own rankings of the best places for young singles 20-29. Now add in Denver and it has the size and scale to be a great place for young professionals. It has thriving, high-tech industries about the best outdoor recreation – from skiing to cycling – to be had anywhere.

6) L.A.
If you want a career in film, entertainment, fashion, or music, it’s the place to be. Sure, it’s crowded, pricey, and the traffic is horrible, but it has abundant sunshine, great temperatures, unbelievable beaches, and fantastic restaurants.

7) Boston
It’s always been a great “stay-over” town for the thousands of regional college grads. This year, it surpassed NYC as the No. 1 destination for Harvard grads. It’s the world center for management consulting with strong finance and high-tech industries. Not to mention a great place to stick around, work for awhile, and go back to grad school.

Seattle
A high-tech and lifestyle mecca in its own right with Amazon, Microsoft, and more. It’s also a center for cutting-edge retail with Starbucks, Costco, and REI. Quality of place by the boatloads.

9) Austin
What can you say about a place whose motto is “Keep Austin Weird”? It remains a high-tech player, with great quality of life that’s affordable. It’s the indie music capital of the universe with SXSW and Austin City Limits and a great array of local venues. Plus, with residents like Lance Armstrong, it’s a cyclist and outdoor enthusiast’s paradise.

10) Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
Another great high-tech, university, smart city, which boasts a mild climate, highly educated population, great outdoor activities, and a great music scene.

Runners-Up/Honorable Mention:

• Madison, Wisconsin, and Ann Arbor, Michigan – Both great stay-over college towns that rank very high on my own rankings. College towns in general perform well in this demographic; they’ve coped reasonably well with the recession and are good places to stay or head, at least for a while
• Atlanta and Minneapolis: Regional talent magnets for the southeast and Great Lakes/Plains respectively.
• Outside the U.S.: London, Toronto, Shanghai, Sydney-Melbourne-Brisbane.

Key factors affecting location of young, college-educated singles
Even with signs that the worst of the Great Recession is over, young people are understandably worried about their economic future. This past May, the Wall Street Journal reported that some of the past decade’s “youth magnet” locations are losing their appeal as economic opportunities whither in cities like Phoenix, Seattle, Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Las Vegas, and others which led the nation in attracting young college grads from 2005 to 2007. So where are young, educated, single people heading?

A recent survey lists the best places for college grads to launch their careers. New York City topped the list – despite the financial crisis – with eight in 10 survey respondents listing it as one of their top destinations. Second-place Washington, D.C. was named by 63 percent. Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, and San Diego round out the top 10. And, remember, this is a list of the places that are best to find a job, not to have fun, go to great restaurants or clubs, make friends, or get lots of dates.

The list is heavy on big cities, and it’s remarkably similar to a comprehensive list my research team and I developed for my book Who’s Your City? of the best places for college-educated 20- to 29-year-olds. It also put big cities such as San Francisco, Washington, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York on top. (D.C. jumped to the top of the list when we factored affordability and cost into the mix.) College towns also did well, with Madison, WI, topping the list for medium-size regions, and Boulder, CO, taking first place for small regions. Raleigh, N.C.; Ann Arbor, MI; and New Haven, CT also score well. To get at the factors that attract and keep Gen Y in certain places, my colleague Charlotta Mellander and I analyzed the results of a Gallup survey of some 28,000 Americans.

First off, young, educated people are considerably less attached to where they live and considerably more mobile than other Americans. About a quarter (26.5 percent) of them said they were extremely satisfied with the place they currently live, compared with nearly half (47.4 percent) of all Americans. Twenty-somethings are, on average, three or four times more likely to move than 40- or 50-somethings.

Jobs are clearly important. Gen Y members ranked the availability of jobs second when asked what would keep them in their current location and fourth in terms of their overall satisfaction with their community. But it’s more than just a job. Young people today are faced with dwindling corporate commitment; job tenure has grown far shorter and people switch jobs with much greater frequency. That means picking a location which not only offers a great job but a thick labor market with abundant career opportunity, as a hedge against economic uncertainty and the risk of layoff.

But the highest-ranked factor is the ability to meet people and make friends. Young, educated people intuitively understand what economic sociologists have documented: Vibrant social networks are key to landing jobs, moving forward in your career, and one’s broader personal happiness. They not only desire a thick labor market but what I have come to call a thick mating market where they can meet new people, go out on dates, and eventually find a life partner. What do you think is more important to happiness: Finding a great job or finding the right life partner?

Where older Americans see high-quality schools and safe streets as key, Gen Y understandably ranks the availability of outstanding colleges and universities higher. Many are likely to go back to graduate school and having great programs nearby is a big plus. When it comes to their overall community satisfaction, access to open space, being in an aesthetically beautiful city, and having access to vibrant nightlife are also quite important. Affordable housing, air, and water quality, and availability of religious institutions matter too but slightly less so.

My own assessment is that finding the right place to live is among the three most important decisions of your life. Moving is an expensive and time-consuming proposition; mistakes can be costly to fix or undo.

The Center for Economic Growth and The Stakeholders present Future Forward, an event featuring Richard Florida, at the Palace Theatre in Albany, New York, on September 24, 2009. Richard will speak about Who’s Your City? and why the creative economy is making where you live one of the most important decisions of your life. A book signing and after party are also part of the evening’s festivities.

Do you feel that you live in the right city? Or is there a move in your future?

From left to right: Richard Florida; Mayor of Albany, New York, Gerald D. Jennings; Jeff Stone, president of Key Bank, NA, Capital Region New York District; City Champion Catherine M. Hedgeman; President, Center for Economic Growth, Michael Tucker

You can add professional basketballer Hedo Turkoglu to the list of people who have relocated to Toronto thanks to its cosmopolitanism. Turkoglu, one of the most sought-after free agents on the market this year, is moving to Toronto with his wife because of its large Turkish community and international flavor. Turkoglu has reportedly rebuffed the Portland Trailblazers, a team that is thought to have more upside, to join the Raptors who did not make the playoffs last year. Money quote from his agent Lon Babby:

“It’s a uniquely cosmopolitan and international community and it suits him and his family best…The comfort level was just best in Toronto.”

Where will the Turkoglu’s new home be? From the looks of it, they will have a ton of options.

A new study finds that housing prices have had a big effect on recent mobility. Here’s a snippet from Real Time Economics.

Housing affordability has played a greater role in prompting residents to leave one state for another over the past decade, according to a study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

This is a change from the past, when jobs were the primary economic driving factor behind state-to-state migration. The study helps explain why migration has fallen off so sharply in this recession — with the drastic fall in housing prices, many people are staying put not for work but because they are tied to a home they either cannot sell or refuse to sell at today’s prices.

The FRB study focuses on New England, which for years has seen a net outflow of residents to other states. The author, Boston Fed economist Alicia Sasser, shows that job growth (or lack thereof) and housing prices played equal roles in New England’s out-migration between 1997 and 2006. Between 2001 and 2006 about 100,000 additional people left Massachusetts either for a job or to seek lower housing prices, according to Ms. Sasser’s research. Roughly 60% of those people left for housing affordability …

Mr. Sasser’s study may give a glimmer of hope to states that have lost people, at least high-cost states like Massachusetts that have lost people to places with lower-priced housing (cities like Buffalo that have lost jobs will likely continue to lose residents.) When the economy eventually picks up, lower housing prices may bring the balance between jobs and home prices back into equilibrium, prompting more New Englanders to stay where they are or even move back.

MapScroll links to a series of “new and improved” maps of Big Five personality types from the expanded (Canadian) edition of my book Who’s Your City?. Based on data collected by Cambridge University psychologist Jason Rentfrow and his collaborators, these new maps ignore state and national boundaries and include the U.S. and Canada.

The first map is agreeable types.

The second is conscientious personalities.

The third is for extroverts who are more likely to move according to Rentfrow and company’s research.

The fourth is for open-to-experience personality types, also more likely to move.

The fifth is for neurotics.

This spring’s 2.3 million newly minted college grads are understandably worried about their economic future. Unemployment among their peers is on the rise, according to this analysis by Chicago-area employment services firm Challenger Gray & Christmas, which found the unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds jumping to 13.2 percent this spring, up from 9.2 percent a year ago.

Saturday’s Wall Street Journal reports that many of the past decade’s “youth magnet” locations are losing their appeal as economic opportunities whither in cities like Phoenix, Seattle, Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Las Vegas, and others which led the nation in attracting young college grads from 2005 to 2007.

So where are this year’s college grads heading?

This recent survey lists the best places for college grads to launch their careers. New York City topped the list – despite the financial crisis – with eight in 10 survey respondents listing it as one of their top destinations. Second-place Washington, D.C. was named by 63 percent. Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, and San Diego round out the top 10. And, remember, this is a list of the places that are best to find a job, not to have fun, go to great restaurants or clubs, make friends, or get lots of dates.

The list is heavy on big cities. It differs considerably from the Wall Street Journal’s youth magnet list, but it’s quite similar to a list my research team and I developed of the best places for recent college graduates which put big cities like San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Boston, Los Angeles, and New York on top. (D.C. jumped to the top of the list when we factored affordability and cost into the mix).

The appeal of big cities stems from a simple economic fact – they offer thicker labor markets with more robust job opportunities across a wide number of fields.

Getting ahead in your career today means more than picking the right first job. Corporate commitment has dwindled, job tenure has grown far shorter, and people switch jobs with much greater frequency. The average American changes their job once every three years; the average American under the age of 30 changes their job once a year.

In today’s highly mobile and economically tumultuous times, career success also turns on picking a thick labor market which offers diverse and abundant job opportunities. For new grads, picking the most vibrant location is an important hedge against economic uncertainty and the risk of layoff.

So for you newly minted college graduates ready to jump at the first job you’re offered, now more than ever it’s important to gauge the vibrancy of the job market and economy you’re signing onto. Moving is an expensive and time-consuming proposition; mistakes are hard to undo. Maybe this place finder tool will help.

And, here again, the economic crisis appears to be reinforcing the position of America’s leading talent magnets while further eroding the status of both older manufacturing centers and sprawling Sunbelt centers, for a simple reason: the location decisions of young college graduates are critical to shaping the future of cities and city-regions. The likelihood that a person will move peaks at around age 25 and then declines steeply with age: a 25-year-old is three times more likely to move than a 45- or 50-year-old. The combination of declining housing prices and concentrating economic opportunity in large U.S. city centers is only likely to compound this trend.

This weekend, instead of picking up your cumbersome Kindle, how about kicking it old school instead? You know, books and paper, readers and writers mingling… meeting authors in person, shaking hands, making eye contact. It’ll do your heart and soul good.

Dig into the feel-good feeling that books and knowledge can prompt by attending The Globe and Mail Open House Festival: A Weekend of Words and Ideas, which is being celebrated at the University of Toronto this weekend, May 8 – 10.

Richard Florida will be speaking on Friday, May 8 about his groundbreaking book Who’s Your City? and the critical importance of weighing the pros and cons of where you live. There’s plenty of advice out there about careers and relationships, but finding your place in the world, literally, is just as crucial to creating a happy life.

Richard himself has moved 17 times. And as you’ll learn by watching Bravo!’s Seamus O’Regan’s compelling interview with Richard for this Arts&Minds special, mobility is something that can enhance your life and career, but there are also costs to leaving behind the people and things you love.

What have been your personal trade-offs in choosing the right city to settle in? Have you given up a certain job or left behind family and friends? Have you traded off on hobbies for a certain lifestyle? Is your life stage winning out over your personality’s needs?

Fewer Americans are moving than at any point in the past six decades (since the Census Bureau started tracking mobility). Fewer than 12 percent (11.9 percent) of Americans moved in 2008 compared to more than 20 percent in 1984-85. This is the result of the economic crisis and the housing slump which has essentially locked Americans in place. Brookings Institution demographer William Frey told the The New York Times:

“It represents a perfect storm halting migration at all levels, since it involves deterrents in local housing-related moves and longer distance employment-related moves. … [T]he U.S. population, often thought of as the most mobile in the developed world, seems to have been stopped dead in its tracks due to a confluence of constraints posed by a tough economic spell.”

The Economist makes much the same point arguing that housing has turned from “shelter” to “burden” – noting that “the social benefits of home ownership look more modest than they did and the economic costs much higher.”

The Census Bureau also reports that foreign immigration to America is down to its lowest point in more than a decade. Quite a devastating double whammy for the U.S. economy which draws considerable strength from labor mobility and inflows of foreign talent.

Economic recovery will turn on restoring both.

Here’s is the Globe and Mail’s excerpt from the hot-off-the-press Canadian edition of Who’s Your City?.

ANALYSIS: CANADA HAS BEEN SPARED – FOR HOW MUCH LONGER?

Our cities are good, but they’ll need to be a lot better