Posts Tagged ‘Northern Virginia’

Richard Florida
by Richard Florida
Fri Feb 20th 2009 at 9:14am EST

Housing’s Burden on All of Us

Friday, February 20th, 2009

Ryan Avent points to this finding from a 2006 report from the Center for Housing Policy, which documents the share of income people devote to housing and transportation. It’s higher than you might think.

With annual combined housing and transportation costs at 39 percent of the median income of $87,398, Arlington County becomes the most effective when you use this formula. Next in line are Alexandria, with a median income of $80,510, and Fairfax County, with median income of $100,419. Both have combined housing and transportation costs at 41 percent.

These are not disadvantaged places we’re talking about, but some of the most affluent counties on the planet. Avent notes: “For residents of exurban Nova counties, like Prince William and Spotsylvania, total housing and transportation cost can be 50 percent or more of median incomes.”

How can we even imagine building an innovative, creative, and knowledge-based economy when housing and transportation costs eat up so much of household income? It would be like trying to build a modern industrial economy, say in the 1930s or even 1950s, but having food (that is the cost for agricultural products) consume half of all income. When housing and transport eat up this much on average, what’s left over to create effective demand for the industries, technologies, and business models of the future?

Before we can get out of this mess, housing and transport have to become a whole lot cheaper.

Richard Florida
by Richard Florida
Thu Oct 2nd 2008 at 7:12am EDT

Housing Market Carnage

Thursday, October 2nd, 2008

The new Case-Shiller Index is out and the results are not pretty (h/t: Allison Kemper). Overall, the index is down 16 percent over the past year and more than 20 percent since its peak in 2006. The biggest declines – on the order of a third – are in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami. Little surprise there. But San Diego, Los Angeles, and even San Francisco appear to be hard hit. Washington, D.C. has also registered a significant decline – so much for those who thought its housing sector is insulated by federal spending.

I read this graphic in light of two related issues. First, there remains great intra-metropolitan variation in housing prices and housing price trends. Ex-urban Virginia has been hit much harder than Northwest Washington, D.C. or Bethesda, Maryland, though both of those have also weakened off their peaks. Second, the high-end neighborhoods which had appeared so resilient are now beginning to show weakness and decline. This is particularly true of super-resort locations, for example, high-end waterfront locations in Miami Beach or San Diego – a good friend tells me a record number of properties have recently come for sale on Nantucket. But this trend is now also affecting the highest end super-star locations like Manhattan and Greenwich, CT, as the financial class has gotten clobbered.

And for our Canadian readers, here’s what Shiller has to say on Canada’s real estate market in the Financial Post: (McClean’s ponders “Canada’s Looming Real Estate Crisis.”):

Asked whether that meant Canada could face a similar bust Mr. Shiller said: “Yes, especially in places that went up a lot like Vancouver and Calgary. I don’t think Toronto has been quite as extreme.”

Shiller’s track record is beyond prescient: I sure hope he’s right about my new hometown.